Policy Change on U.S. Beef Exports to China- Early Impacts Explored

Recall that last month, trade rules regarding U.S beef exports to China were finalized.  The U.S. had not exported beef to China since 2003, and on June 30th, an update from USDA indicated that, "U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today joined with U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad to slice a Nebraska prime rib in a Beijing ceremony, formally marking the return of U.S. beef to the Chinese market after a 13-year hiatus."  Today's update highlights a recent news report describing how this important trade policy change is beginning to impact market participants.
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U.S. Ag Trade Data Update: Some Interesting Observations

Late last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture updated its monthly agricultural trade data.  The data contained some interesting information with respect to U.S. agricultural exports.  The U.S. ran a small, but very rare monthly agricultural trade deficit in May; and, U.S. corn exports to Mexico from January through May of this year were down approximately seven percent from the same time last year.  Today's update also includes recent perspectives on NAFTA renegotiation and agricultural issues.
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Farm State Senators to USTR: On NAFTA, “Do No Harm.”

The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing yesterday to examine the administration’s approach to trade policy, and heard testimony from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Farm state lawmakers expressed concern regarding agriculture and NAFTA renegotiation, admonishing the executive branch to "do no harm" with respect to gains in agricultural trade that have resulted from the agreement. Timelines for the renegotiations were also discussed, as well as agricultural trade issues with China. Potential future bilateral trade negotiations were also mentioned.
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As Mexico Explores Options to Reduce Reliance on U.S. Ag Imports, NAFTA Ag Ministers Meet in Georgia

Wall Street Journal writer Jacob Bunge reported late last week that, "Friction between the U.S. and Mexico over trade is starting to cut into sales for U.S. farmers and agricultural companies, adding uncertainty for an industry struggling with low commodity prices and excess supply. Over the first four months of 2017, Mexican imports of U.S. soybean meal—used to feed poultry and livestock—dropped 15%, the first decrease for the period in four years, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Shipments of U.S. chicken meat fell 11%, the biggest decline for the period since 2003. U.S. corn exports to Mexico declined 6%. Mexico is the largest U.S. export market for those commodities."
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U.S. Ag Exports to China: Soybeans and Corn

Mary A. Marchant indicated recently at Choices Online that, "International trade deficits have recently been reputed as 'bad' for the economy; however, agriculture has posted a trade surplus since 1959. For U.S. agriculture, trade represents 20% of farmers’ income on average, and more for specific commodities—70% for cotton and tree nuts; 50% for wheat, rice, and soybeans: and almost 20% for meat and dairy products. Thus, tossing trade would be comparable to U.S. farmers destroying 20% of their yields. China, which has advanced to become the United States’ largest agricultural export market in an unprecedented time frame, plays a key role in the economic wellbeing of U.S. agriculture."
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USDA Reorganization Proposal Highlights Trade; China Trade Deal Includes Beef

Donnelle Eller reported on the front page of Friday's Des Moines Register that, "Opening markets for U.S. corn, soybeans and other farm goods would get more attention under a major reorganization proposal Thursday from U.S. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue, who wants to create a new undersecretary for trade. With the farm downturn entering a fourth year, ag groups lauded the move."
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Secretary Perdue Visits Iowa- Discusses Trade, RFS

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue visited an Iowa farm on Friday and took questions from producers. In his remarks, Secretary Perdue addressed a number of issues; today's update focuses more narrowly on his comments relating to trade and biofuels. Also, Secretary Perdue was in Arkansas on Sunday to survey flood damage with Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
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Secretary Perdue Intervenes on NAFTA- Trade Issues Persist

During last week's tumultuous developments on trade, news reports indicated that Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue was providing President Trump with data driven advice with respect to NAFTA and agriculture, and urged him not to trigger a U.S. withdrawal from the trade accord. Nonetheless, recent remarks from a Senator from Mexico regarding corn imports, and potential NAFTA renegotiation issues means trade policy will likely remain an ongoing concern for Illinois producers and farmers throughout the U.S.
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