The United States Department of Agriculture this week raised its fiscal year 2024 agricultural export and import forecasts by $1 billion each, holding steady its estimate of a $30.5 billion…
Reuters News reported late last week that, “The first cases of African swine fever have been confirmed in farm pigs in Germany, the country’s federal agriculture ministry said on Friday.
“Still, pig prices have held below cost-covering levels for farmers, according to [producers group] ISN. The country’s pork sales outside the bloc are running at less than half last year’s pace, government data show.”
ASF now confirmed in farm pigs in Germany. Can the spread in Europe be contained. Potentially big story developing here. https://t.co/zanzVqJcmE— Scott Irwin (@ScottIrwinUI) July 16, 2021
Also late last week, Reuters News reported that, “The discovery on Friday of the first cases of African swine fever (ASF) in farm pigs in Germany could make negotiations about lifting existing import bans with China and other major buyers more difficult, but no major impact on the German pork market is immediately expected, experts said.”
“This is not expected to have a major market impact as German pork exports are already subject to bans from many importers outside the EU, the experts said.”
On Monday, Reuters News reported that, “A third case of African swine fever (ASF) was confirmed over the weekend in farm pigs in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, German authorities said.
“The case was on a small farm with four pigs inside the restriction zone where the disease is common among wild boar, the Brandenburg state health ministry said.”
Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported last week that,
China’s record demand for foreign pork is about to crater after domestic prices plummeted, potentially easing pressure on the world meat market and cooling at least one constituent of global food costs.
“The planet’s biggest importer of the protein staple could slash overseas purchases by more than 50% in the July-December period from the first half of the year because local supplies are now cheaper than overseas shipments, said Jim Huang, head of China-America Commodity Data Analytics, an independent consulting firm focused on agriculture.”
The Bloomberg article noted that, “As an illustration of the increase in local supply, pork production in China jumped 36% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to about 27 million tons, while hog numbers were up almost 30% to 439 million at the end of June from 12 months earlier, according to statistics bureau data Thursday.”
More broadly regarding U.S., China trade issues, Financial Times writer Demetri Sevastopulo reported last week that, “Beijing has snubbed the US by refusing to grant Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state, a meeting with her counterpart during a proposed visit to China that would have been the first top-level engagement since acrimonious talks in Alaska.
“The US halted plans for Sherman to travel to Tianjin after China refused to agree to a meeting with Le Yucheng, her counterpart, according to four people familiar with the decision. China offered a meeting with Xie Feng, the number five foreign ministry official who is responsible for US affairs.”
The FT article indicated that, The Biden administration had been negotiating what would have been the first high-level engagement since their first meeting in Alaska, which erupted into a public spat between Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Yang Jiechi, the top Chinese foreign policy official.”
“‘China’s move is a dangerous one. It increases distrust, tension and the risk of miscalculation during an already fraught period,’ [Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University] said.”