U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $172.0 Billion in Fiscal Year 2024

Last week, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was prepared by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, Dylan Russell, and James Kaufman.

The Outlook stated that, “U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 are projected at $172.0 billion, down $5.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2023. This reduction is largely driven by lower exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and dairy products.

Soybean exports are forecast down $5.8 billion to $26.5 billion on lower volumes due to a lower U.S. production forecast, competition from South America, and high domestic crush demand.

Last week’s update noted that, “For FY 2023, the export forecast is at $177.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the May forecast, largely due to decreases in corn, wheat, and tree nut exports.”

FAS-ERS pointed out that, “FY 2024 U.S. grain and feed exports are forecast at $38.8 billion, up $600 million from FY 2023 on higher corn and sorghum export volumes.

Corn exports are forecast at $13.3 billion, up $500 million from FY 2023 as higher volumes more than offset lower unit values.

“Large supplies in the United States and South America are easing global prices and expected to encourage demand for corn. If Argentina and Brazil corn production and exports for next year’s crop are realized as currently forecast, the United States will face sustained competition.”

The Outlook indicated that, “FY 2023 U.S. grain and feed exports are forecast at $38.2 billion, down $2.3 billion from the May forecast on lower corn and wheat export values. Corn exports are forecast at $12.8 billion, down $1.7 billion from the May forecast on both lower unit values and volumes. Competition from Brazil has weakened volumes, while a forecast rebound in global corn production has been easing prices.”

ERS-FAS noted that, “FY 2024 oilseeds and products exports are forecast at $37.5 billion, down $6.0 billion from FY 2023, mostly on lower soybean unit values and volumes. Soybean export values are projected to fall to $26.5 billion on a reduced U.S. harvest forecast, strong South America competition, and high domestic crush demand.”

“FY 2023 oilseed and products exports are forecast at $43.5 billion, unchanged from the May forecast, as lower soybean export volumes are countered by slightly higher unit values and increased volumes and unit values of soybean meal,” The Outlook said.

Last week’s update added that, “Exports to China are forecast at $30.0 billion, down $3.0 billion from the revised FY 2023 estimate. Economic headwinds and lower feed consumption reduce China’s overall import demand, particularly for feed stuff and animal products. Soybeans account for the bulk of the year-over-year reduction as U.S. supplies face stiff competition from Brazil and both prices and volumes are projected lower. U.S. beef and dairy product exports to China are also expected to contract owing to weakening demand. Tree nut and sorghum exports should rebound somewhat from the previous year. China is expected to remain the largest agricultural market for the United States.”