More specifically, FAPRI indicated that, “China’s tariffs reduce U.S. soybean exports. Projected record soybean production in 2018 also contributes to a sharp increase in ending stocks.
The marketing year average (MYA) price for soybeans falls to $8.73 per bushel in 2018/19, the lowest level since 2006/07.
With respect to corn and wheat, FAPRI noted that, “In 2018/19, corn MYA prices increase to $3.62 per bushel and wheat prices increase to $5.12 per bushel. A reduced South American corn harvest in early 2018 boosts short‐term U.S. corn exports, and smaller wheat crops in Europe, Australia and other countries support wheat prices.”
Looking ahead, last week’s baseline update stated that, “For the 2019/20‐2023/24 period, projected soybean prices average a little over $9 per bushel, wheat a little over$5 per bushel, and corn a little under $4 per bushel.”
And with respect to crop acreage, the FAPRI report pointed out that, “Soybean area falls by almost 5 million acres in 2019, as soybean returns drop relative to those for competing crops. Corn and wheat area each increase by about 2 million acres in 2019.”
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.