Wall Street Journal writers Ryan Dezember and Kirk Maltais reported last week that, "Dry weather, China’s push to fatten its pigs and the lockdown-induced baking bonanza are lifting prices for U.S. row crops."
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri recently released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets. Today’s post summarizes highlights from the August FAPRI baseline report.
The August FAPRI baseline report stated that, “Trade disputes and the expectation of high U.S. corn and soybean yields are weighing on the prices of many agricultural commodities.”
“This update was prepared the week of August 20, 2018. Policies in place at that time, including the 2014 farm bill and China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, are assumed to continue. The estimates do not incorporate the market facilitation payments and other trade compensation policies announced on August 27.”
More specifically, FAPRI indicated that, “China’s tariffs reduce U.S. soybean exports. Projected record soybean production in 2018 also contributes to a sharp increase in ending stocks.
The marketing year average (MYA) price for soybeans falls to $8.73 per bushel in 2018/19, the lowest level since 2006/07.
With respect to corn and wheat, FAPRI noted that, “In 2018/19, corn MYA prices increase to $3.62 per bushel and wheat prices increase to $5.12 per bushel. A reduced South American corn harvest in early 2018 boosts short‐term U.S. corn exports, and smaller wheat crops in Europe, Australia and other countries support wheat prices.”
Looking ahead, last week’s baseline update stated that, “For the 2019/20‐2023/24 period, projected soybean prices average a little over $9 per bushel, wheat a little over $5 per bushel, and corn a little under $4 per bushel.”
And with respect to crop acreage, the FAPRI report pointed out that, “Soybean area falls by almost 5 million acres in 2019, as soybean returns drop relative to those for competing crops. Corn and wheat area each increase by about 2 million acres in 2019.”