The United States Department of Agriculture this week raised its fiscal year 2024 agricultural export and import forecasts by $1 billion each, holding steady its estimate of a $30.5 billion…
Reuters writer Natalia Zinets reported yesterday that, “Ukraine’s new agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi on Saturday said Ukraine’s ability to export grains was getting worse by the day and would only improve if the war with Russia ends.
“Speaking in a televised briefing, Solskyi said Ukraine, one of the world’s top grain producers, would normally be exporting 4-5 million tonnes of grain per month – a volume that has fallen to just a few hundred-thousand tonnes.
‘The impact (on global markets) is direct, dramatic and large. And it continues. Every day the situation will become more and more difficult,’ he said.
And today, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported that, “Traders have exported the first supplies of Ukrainian corn to Europe by train as the country’s sea ports remain blocked due to the Russian invasion, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Sunday.
See our updated information note on the impacts on food security of the war in Ukraine https://t.co/j3Q23qKAEH— Maximo Torero (@MaximoTorero) March 26, 2022
And the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently released an updated information note on the impacts on food security of the war in Ukraine.
In part, the FAO report stated that, “The Russian Federation and Ukraine are among the most important producers of agricultural commodities in the world. Both countries are net exporters of agricultural products, and they both play leading supply roles in global markets of foodstuffs and fertilisers, where exportable supplies are often concentrated in a handful of countries. This concentration could expose these markets to increased vulnerability to shocks and volatility.
In 2021, either the Russian Federation or Ukraine (or both) ranked amongst the top three global exporters of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, while the Russian Federation also stood as the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second leading supplier of potassium fertilizers and the third largest exporter of phosphorous fertilizers.
The FAO report noted that, “Current indications are that, as a result of the conflict, between 20 and 30 percent of areas sown to winter crops in Ukraine will remain unharvested during the 2022/23 season, with the yields of these crops also likely to be adversely affected. Furthermore, considerable uncertainties surround Ukrainian farmers’ capacity to plant crops during the fast approaching spring crop cycle.”
“In order to prevent or limit the conflict’s detrimental impacts on the food and agricultural sectors of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, every effort should be made to keep international trade in food and fertilizers open to meet domestic and global demand. Supply chains should be kept fully operational, including by protecting standing crops, livestock, food processing infrastructure, and all logistical systems,” the FAO report said.