“Futures traded in Chicago rose as much as 5.9 per cent to $12.47 a bushel, their highest level in two months. Wheat prices have risen more than 60 per cent this year, driven up by disruption from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two European countries account for almost a third of the world’s wheat exports.”
The FT article stated that, “Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the wheat export ban would be a ‘shape shifter‘ for global markets.
“‘The trade will likely need to replace at least some Indian wheat in the pipeline,’ Gorey said. ‘We suspect that will create an initial flurry of trading but the market will take some time to assess the details.'”
Also today, Reuters writer Enrico Dela Cruz reported that, “The overall grains supply picture looks worrisome, analysts said, with crop conditions for French wheat and barley in the EU’s biggest grain-growing country also hit by dry weather.
“Pressed into emergency service by the blockade of Ukraine’s seaports by Russian invaders, neighbouring Romania is racing against time to move Ukrainian grain to global markets before the next harvest triggers bottlenecks.”
Nonetheless, Bloomberg writer Jasmine Ng reported yesterday that, “India’s wheat export restrictions created some high-octane headlines and triggered a price surge, but details might prove less explosive.”
The Bloomberg article pointed out that, “‘This doesn’t mean the world fully loses Indian wheat exports, but it will change trade flows and likely reduces India’s export volumes,’ said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney. Harvests from Europe, North America and Russia will start to become available soon, which will alleviate supply tightness in the physical markets and ease inflationary pressures.”
Keith Good is the social media manager for the farmdoc project at the University of Illinois. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
Alan Rappeport reported in today's New York Times that, "As the United States and Europe contemplate their next rounds of sanctions to starve Russia of the revenue that is funding its war, there is growing concern that the fallout is…
Missy Ryan reported in Saturday's Washington Post that, "Top diplomats urged swift global action on Friday in the face of a mounting food crisis, as the war in Ukraine worsens conditions that have pushed millions of people into hunger."