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U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2023 Forecast Down, Lower Grain Exports Expected

On Wednesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Bart KennerHui Jiang, Dylan Russell and James Kaufman.

The Outlook stated that, “U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are forecast at $181.0 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast. This revision is driven by decreases in corn, wheat, beef, and poultry exports.”

Interactive summary and highlights of the May 2023 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. USDA- Economic Research Service (May 31, 2023-

The Outlook also noted that,

Corn exports are forecast $2.1 billion lower to $14.5 billion on lower unit values and volumes as Brazil is poised to harvest a record second crop corn.

Wheat exports are projected down $900 million to $7.4 billion due to lower volumes and unit values, as well as increased competition. Overall grain and feed exports are projected $3.3 billion lower at $40.5 billion.”

Interactive summary and highlights of the May 2023 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. USDA- Economic Research Service (May 31, 2023-

Soybean exports are projected up $300 million to $32.3 billion on slightly higher volumes.”

FAS-ERS pointed out that, “Brazil is forecast to have a record production for its upcoming safrinha crop, to be harvested starting in June 2023, which has eased global prices and made Brazil’s corn more price competitive than U.S. corn.”

The Outlook added that, “U.S. wheat export volumes are forecast down significantly due to smaller-than-expected winter wheat production for 2023/24 on higher acreage abandonment and reduced yields amidst drought conditions.  U.S. wheat exports also face increased competition in Western Hemisphere markets from regional competitors Canada and Argentina.”

With respect to regional exports, FAS-ERS indicated that, “Forecast exports to China are unchanged at $34.0 billion, with record soybean exports offsetting lower corn, wheat, and beef sales.”

“The export forecast for Mexico is up $500 million from the February projection to $28.5 billion, largely driven by strong sales of soybeans, dairy products, pork, and corn.”

Recall that the 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook, released earlier this month by FAS, stated that, “In 2022, U.S. exports of farm and food products to the world totaled $196 billion, topping the 2021 total (and previous record) by 11 percent ($19.5 billion). Most of this gain was due to historically high prices, as the overall agricultural export volume of bulk commodities decreased by 6 percent year-over-year.”

Keith Good Photo

Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.

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