Black Sea Grain Deal Revival Talks Underway

World-Grain’s Arvin Donley reported Monday that “Russia is expressing interest in resuming the Black Sea Grain Initiative as part of its discussions with the United States on March 24 in Saudi Arabia regarding a potential ceasefire with Ukraine, Reuters reported.”

“The deal, which originally was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, allowed safe passage of Ukrainian grain out of its Black Sea ports during the Russian-Ukraine conflict, which began in February 2022 and has been fought mostly on Ukrainian soil,” Donley reported. “The deal was signed in the summer of 2022 following five-month blockade of grain exports from Ukraine’s sea ports. The agreement lasted until the summer of 2023 when Russia pulled out of the deal claiming key aspects of it were never implemented.”

“Since then, Ukraine has circumvented the Russian blockade by using an alternative sea route as well as increasing international shipments by river, rail and road. Commercial vessels have traced the Black Sea’s western coast, along the borders of friendly states such as Bulgaria and Romania,” Donley reported. “It is difficult for Russian submarines to maneuver in the shallow waters, and the shipping lane, near NATO territory, raises the possibility of a military confrontation between Russia and NATO countries.”

Russia & the U.S. are discussing reviving the “grain deal” today.

But here’s the twist 👇

🌾 Ukraine’s grain is flowing without official Kremlin approval
⚓ The Black Sea is functioning
So, why the talks?

🎯 Likely outcome:
• Formalize the status quo
• Call it a “maritime…

— Andrey Sizov (@sizov_andre) March 24, 2025

Andrey Sizov of the Sovecon consultancy said on the social media platform X, however, that a new Black Sea grain deal would just be “business as usual—with better PR.” That’s because Ukraine’s grain is already flowing without Kremlin approval and the Black Sea is currently functioning, he said. That means any agreement would likely just “formalize the status quo,” while the countries could “declare a heroic win for global food security.”

Reuters’ Dmitry Antonov and Mark Trevelyan reported Tuesday morning that “Russia said on Tuesday it was willing to strike a new agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea – a possible stepping stone towards a ceasefire with Ukraine – but only if the United States ordered President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to respect it. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said only such an order would provide the assurances that Russia needed.”

“‘We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelenskiy and his team to do one thing and not the other,’ Lavrov said in televised comments,” according to Antonov and Trevelyan’s reporting. “‘And it seems to me that our American partners have received this signal. They understand that only Washington can achieve positive results in stopping terrorist attacks, stopping shelling of civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure not related to the military-industrial complex.'”

Russia Says Original Black Sea Grain Deal Not Fulfilled

Reuters’ reported on Monday that “what Moscow saw as key parts of an earlier agreement (made in 2022) on the subject were never implemented.”

“Russia withdrew from the agreement in 2023, complaining that its own food and fertilizer exports faced serious obstacles, though Russia is not currently facing serious problems getting its grain to market by the Black Sea,” Reuters reported. “To convince Russia to agree to the Black Sea deal, a three-year memorandum of understanding was struck in July 2022 under which U.N. officials agreed to help Russia get its food and fertilizer exports to foreign markets.”

“While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions, Moscow has said restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have amounted to a barrier to shipments,” Reuters reported. “Russia wanted a resumption of its ammonia exports and the reconnection of its state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT international payments system.“