Corn Futures Dipped Below $4 on Wednesday

Bloomberg’s Michael Hirtzer reported that “corn futures fell below $4 a bushel (on Wednesday) to the lowest level in about 11 months as favorable US weather continued to weigh on prices ahead of a key report due next week that could show eye-popping yields.” At close on Wednesday, prices had recovered slightly to above $4 a bushel, but were still at their lowest since mid-October 2024.

In early trading Thursday, corn futures are rebounding and sit at just above $4.04, as of 8 a.m. EST.

“Estimates from traders are coming in above the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast in July. StoneX earlier this week estimated the American corn yield at 188.1 bushels per acre, considerably above the USDA’s already record-high forecast of 181. The agency will update its estimates in a monthly report due Aug. 12,” Hirtzer reported. “Abundant rainfall and a relative lack of threatening heat have boosted US fields, even as some farmers complain of pollination issues that could impede yields in certain areas.”

“The ‘path of least resistance for corn prices is likely sideways to a slow grind lower until late August,’ Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm said in a note,” according to Hirtzer’s reporting. “Ample wheat harvests and China avoiding purchases of US crops amid the trade dispute with US President Donald Trump also are heaping pressure on markets.”

AgWeb’s Michelle Rook reported that Greg McBride, with Allendale, Inc., “says the pressure in corn is also tied to farmer selling as producers have to clear old crop corn out their bins before harvest or make sales ahead of first notice day on the September contract. ‘These bushels are hitting the market and causing basis levels to widen out as well,’ he says.”

Corn Price Could Fall Further if Yield Estimate Reaches mid-180s

Rook reported in a different article that “the key to how low corn prices could fall is dependent on just how much above the 181 bushel trend line yield USDA pegs national corn yields in the Aug. 12 WASDE.”

“Mark Schultz, chief analyst, Northstar Commodity says, ‘USDA is going to do it all by satellite imagery, they’re gonna do it by crop ratings in their formula, so no boots on the ground. But when you look at it from that standpoint, obviously what they’re gonna see is an awfully good looking corn crop. So my guess is you’re gonna go on up. The question gets to be, do they bump it immediately up to 184, 185, something like that?'” Rook reported.

“A mid-180 corn yield could push production above 16 billion bushels and ending stocks above 2 billion. So, could that push December corn below last year’s $3.85 low?” Rook reported. “McCormick says it’s very likely. ‘If this crop would push up to 185 plus, some people say higher than that, that would push your carryout potentially over 2 billion bushels and what that does is put your stocks used closer to 14 -15%. Historically, that could argue corn as low as $3.50.'”

“Adding insult to injury, McCormick says very little new crop corn has been priced,” Rook reported. “‘Roughly 5% of this crop is sold, we estimate, which means you got about 15 billion bushels of unpriced corn and that is gonna probably be a drag on the market as we get into harvest.'”