China Reaches 12 Million Ton US Soybean Purchase Pledge

Reuters’ Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral reported that “China has bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that volume by the end of February, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, after a late-October trade truce spurred buying.”

“As buyers shunned North American supplies amid a trade war, China recorded no imports from the United States for four consecutive months from last September, taking U.S. market share down to 15% from 21% in 2024,” Cao and Thukral reported. “But the 12-million target was met last week after bulk purchases by state stockpiler Sinograin and state trader COFCO, which were the only buyers of U.S. beans, as private crushers continue to favor cheaper supplies from Argentina and Brazil.”

“The purchased U.S. soybean cargoes, amounting to 12 million tons, are set for shipment between December and May, the sources said,” according to Cao and Thukral’s reporting. “In early December, Reuters reported that at least six bulk cargo vessels were scheduled to load soybeans at U.S. Gulf Coast terminals for China, with a seventh already on the way. One of these vessels, Ocean Harvest, is set to arrive at the eastern port of Zhangjiagang in about a week, according to ship-tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.”

China Has Now Largely Covered Demand through March

Bloomberg’s Hallie Gu and Alfred Cang reported that “the current tally reflects continued bookings by state-owned firms in recent weeks, the people said. Export data from the US Department of Agriculture, which lags real time, puts China’s purchases at just over 8 million tons as of January 8.”

“Reaching the apparent target, while widely expected, is likely to bolster confidence among traders and exporters that China could also meet a broader goal — outlined by the White House — of buying at least 25 million tons of US soybeans annually through 2028,” Gu and Cang reported. “It does not, however, point to a fundamental shift in China’s purchasing patterns. As part of its food security push, the country has made significant efforts to diversify suppliers and reduce reliance on US crops since the trade war in Trump’s first term. Economic challenges have also curbed demand, while top grower Brazil is heading toward another bumper harvest.”

“China has largely covered its demand through March. It is now also booking new-crop soybeans from Brazil for loading in months as far as August, the traders said,” according to Gu and Cang’s reporting. “‘That’s going to be an upcoming issue: whether we can count on China to continue to buy after that 12 million or not,’ said Randy Place, senior grains analyst at the Hightower Report.”

US Producers Concerned About Soybean Competitiveness with Brazil

Purdue University’s Michael Langemeier and James Mintert reported in the December Ag Economy Barometer that “farmers’ perspectives on U.S. agricultural exports were mixed in December. Responding to a generic question about the future of agricultural exports, producers provided one of their most optimistic outlooks of the year, with just 5% of producers looking for exports to decline over the next five years.”

“However, when asked to focus more specifically on soybeans, a key agricultural export, their outlook was notably less sanguine,” Langemeier and Mintert reported. “In December, 13% of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decline over the upcoming five years, up from 8% of growers who felt that way in November. Similarly, the percentage of growers who expect soybean exports to increase in the next five years fell from 47% in November to 39% in December.”

“Increasing competition from Brazil is weighing on producers’ minds,” Langemeier and Mintert reported. “Eighty-four percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, with 45% indicating they were very concerned.“