USDA Raises Wheat, Corn and Soy Price Estimates

Agri-Pulse’s Oliver Ward reported that “season-average price estimates for wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, cheese and cotton were all raised slightly in the Agriculture Department’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published Thursday.”

“The latest report shows the season-average farm price for wheat is up 5 cents to $5 per bushel, with corn raised the same amount to $4.15,” Ward reported. “‘We’re expecting a little bit of a seasonal rise in prices in the months ahead,’ (USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark) Jankowski said. The soybean price is up 10 cents to $10.30 a bushel, and the season-average meal price is up $10 to $310 per short ton.”

“The cotton price is up just 1 cent to 61 cents per pound,” Ward reported. “USDA notes that China, India and Pakistan are all set to increase their production by around 300,000 bales, but consumption is also set to rise with higher demand from China and India.”

Wheat Ending Stocks Highest Since 2019-20

Bloomberg’s Michael Hirtzer reported that “America’s wheat supplies are expanding as imports rise even as farmers plant less of the staple grain, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest monthly outlook.”

“The agency estimated so-called ending stocks at 938 million bushels, the most since 2020 and larger than analysts expected. World supplies also came in above the range of estimates with increased production in the European Union and Russia,” Hirtzer reported. “Wheat futures in Chicago dropped (on Thursday) as much as 1.8%, to the lowest level since March 5.”

“The outlook for increased stockpiles comes as a fragile ceasefire in Iran has brought down crude oil prices, although concerns remain that skyrocketing costs for fertilizer from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could prompt shortages of crop nutrients,” Hirtzer reported.

Farm Futures’ Ben Potter reported that “world ending stocks for wheat increased from 276.96 million metric tons in March up to 283.12 MMT. That was also above the average trade guess of 277.07 MMT. India, Ukraine, the European Union, Australia and Bangladesh drove most of that increase.”

Corn & Soybeans See Few Changes

Progressive Farmer reported that “the only change with the 2025-26 corn crop is USDA bumped up the farm gate price 5 cents to $4.15 a bushel. Usage and ending stocks were unchanged. Corn production is pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels (bb) with a yield forecast at 186.5 bushels per acre (bpa).”

“Globally, corn beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop were raised slightly to 296.28 million metric tons (mmt),” Progressive Farmer reported. “Global production was increased 3.63 mmt to 1,301.07 mmt. Exports globally were pegged at 207.29 mmt, up slightly from March. Global ending stocks were 294.81 mmt, up 2.06 mmt, and higher than the average pre-report estimates.”

“USDA left (soybean) ending stocks for 2025-26 unchanged at 350 million bushels (mb), while tweaking some demand categories,” Progressive Farmer reported. “Between 325 mb of beginning stocks, 4.262 bb of production and 25 mb of imports, total supplies were 4.612 bb. USDA increased its crush estimate to 2.61 bb, up 35 mb, while trimming its export estimate by 35 mb to 1.54 bb. Seed use was forecast at 73 mb and residual at 39 mb. Total use was 4.262 bb.”

“Globally, (soybean) ending stocks were lowered to 124.79 mmt, reflecting slightly higher crush estimates,” Progressive Farmer reported. “Production in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged at 180 mmt and 48 mmt, respectively, with Paraguay’s production climbing by 0.5 mmt to 12 mmt.”