USDA to Include More Farmers in Future Surveys

Reuters’ Julie Ingwersen reported that “the U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to survey more farmers for some of its key U.S. crop reports ​following a drop in the response rate for its March ‌31 plantings report, officials with the agency’s statistical arm said in a public data users’ meeting on Wednesday.”

“The USDA faced criticism over the reliability of its data ​after making unprecedented increases in January to corn acreage ​estimates for the 2025 crop,” Ingwersen reported. “Last month, the response rate for ⁠the USDA’s March 31 planting intentions report was 37.6%, down ​from 44.3% last year and the lowest on record for that survey, the agency’s National ​Agricultural Statistics Service said.”

“Pending approval from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, the USDA wants to increase the sample size of farmers surveyed for its ​June 30 acreage report by about 35%, and by 10% for ​subsequent reports in September, December and March,” Ingwersen reported. “‘This should substantially boost our usable reports ‌and ⁠increase the precision for major field crop estimates,’ Joseph Parsons, administrator of the USDA’s statistics service, said at the data meeting.”

“In addition, the USDA plans to add more ‘plain language’ information to its reports about ​the level of ​uncertainty associated with ⁠key statistics, Parsons said,” according to Ingwersen’s reporting. “Separately, the USDA plans to launch a yearly report, possibly starting this autumn, ​on how its forecasts for major crops compared to ​final totals ⁠determined after the end of the marketing year, Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden told the meeting.”

USDA Received 238 Comments on Data Products

The information shared at the data users’ meeting came after Agri-Pulse’s Noah Wicks reported that “limited farmer participation in surveys, declining agency purchasing power and staffing declines are among concerns raised by farm groups and data advocates weighing in on the Agriculture Department’s statistical programs.”

“USDA’s Economic Research Service, National Agricultural Statistical Service, and Office of the Chief Economist opened a request for comments in late February seeking feedback on its research and data collection process to help inform ‘future program direction, new initiatives, and potential funding opportunities,’ according to a request for comment,” Wicks reported. “When the comment period closed on April 9, the agency had received 238 comments offering a wide array of feedback, including calls to explore the use of more satellite technologies in its data collection efforts, recommendations to maintain funding for current reports, and suggestions to consider expanding data report offerings into new areas.”

Confidence in USDA Data Has Fallen in Recent Months

The comment period and expansion of farmers being surveyed is in direct response to the fact that AgWeb’s Michelle Rook and Tyne Morgan reported in mid-February that “confidence in USDA reporting is slipping across the agricultural economy, and it’s not just talk in the countryside. According to Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, released at Top Producer Summit, the majority of economists, producers and retailers say their confidence in USDA reports has declined compared to past years.”

“68% of economists say they are less confident in USDA reports,” Rook and Morgan reported. “73% of producers say their confidence has declined. 78% of retailers report waning trust.”

“At the center of the discussion: A June acreage ‘miss’ and subsequent revisions left many in the industry questioning how such large shifts could occur in a short window and whether the data driving markets can be trusted,” Rook and Morgan reported. “…(Seth) Meyer, former USDA chief economist, acknowledges the issue. ‘Quite honestly, I think this is a problem,’ he says. ‘If you’ve lost confidence, we have to ask why.’ He emphasizes, however, the issue is not political interference or hidden agendas in USDA or the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).”

“Instead, he pointed to structural challenges, including survey fatigue among producers and confusion about how acreage numbers are constructed and revised,” Rook and Morgan reported.