American Farmers May See Deeper Losses in 2027

Northern AG Network reported that, “several years of high inflation and low commodity prices, coupled with volatile production costs, are continuing to squeeze farmers financially. These forces are projected to hit farmers with $32 billion in losses for the major row crops in 2027 after a projected loss of $31 billion in 2026. Fruit, vegetable, nut and other specialty crop farmers faced billions of dollars in losses in 2025, with difficult market conditions continuing throughout 2026.” “American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) analysis projects 2027 will mark a sixth year of negative returns over total costs for most major row crops,” Northern AG Network reported. “Specialty crop farmers are experiencing similar financial strain, facing expected below-breakeven prices and acreage reductions. At the same time, fertilizer and fuel prices remain volatile, with the Iran conflict adding additional pressure to those markets.”

Below-Breakeven Prices Projected for Major Crops

AGDaily reported that, “the updated analysis, published in the latest Farm Bureau Intel, found that most major crops are expected to remain below breakeven on a per-acre basis next year. The Farm Bureau Intel states, ‘Corn losses are projected to increase from $131 per acre in 2026 to $167 per acre in 2027. Soybean losses are projected to increase from $80 per acre to $138 per acre, wheat losses from $114 per acre to $145 per acre and cotton losses from $342 per acre to $406 per acre. Rice, sorghum, oats, barley and peanuts are also projected to remain below breakeven.’” “In total dollar terms, corn accounts for the largest projected loss at $15.8 billion, followed by soybeans at $11.6 billion, wheat at $6.6 billion and cotton at $3.8 billion,” Northern AG Network reported. “Combined, losses across the nine principal crops are projected to reach $41.4 billion in 2027.” “These 2026 and 2027 figures represent projected, not realized, losses,” Northern AG Network reported. “Producers still have time to adjust acreage and input decisions, while weather, yields, market prices and other factors could change the final outcome. The 2027 estimate assumes crop prices remain at 2026 levels, though actual prices will vary in response to changing market conditions.”

Speciality Crops Struggle with Below-Breakeven Prices, Acreage Reduction

Michigan Farm News’ Mitch Galloway reported that, “specialty crop farmers are experiencing a similar financial strain, facing expected below-breakeven prices and acreage reductions across major fruit, vegetable and tree nut sectors in 2026, even as limited public data make the full scale of losses difficult to measure.” “The Farm Bureau Intel outlines six representative specialty crops — almonds, apples, blueberries, lettuce, potatoes and strawberries — with ‘over $7 billion in estimated 2025 economic losses as labor, input, compliance and capital costs outpaced farm-level returns,’” AGDaily reported. “Available 2026 market data show that conditions for specialty crop producers have not broadly improved. Those six crops represent roughly one-quarter of all specialty crop receipts, suggesting financial pressures could be even broader across the sector.” “The economists said recent economic conditions also show a shrinking domestic specialty crop footprint,” Galloway reported. “Since 2000, U.S. vegetable acreage has declined 41%, while production has fallen 24%, from 37 million metric tons to 28 million in 2024. Fruit acreage has declined 37%, while production has fallen 48%, from 51 million metric tons to 26 million. Tree nut production strengthened during years of stronger markets, peaking at 3.7 million metric tons in 2020, but had fallen to 3.2 million by 2024.”  

Economists Say Aid is Needed to Offset Losses

“The report attributes the continued financial strain to several years of elevated inflation, lower commodity prices and persistent uncertainty surrounding production costs,” AGDaily reported. “Farm Bureau economists also noted that fertilizer and fuel prices remain volatile, with recent geopolitical tensions adding further pressure to input costs.” “According to AFBF’s Faith Parum, Ph.D., and Daniel Munch, additional financial support is critical to offset trade-related losses, rising input costs and the deep financial pressure facing U.S. row crop, specialty crop, hay and sugar producers,” Galloway reported. “To date, Congress has approved $23 billion in economic assistance programs, including $10 billion in aid for row crop farmers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program and $11 billion via the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, which provided short-term economic relief to row crop farmers and another $1 billion for specialty crop and sugar assistance for losses felt in 2025.” “In late June, President Trump requested more than $11 billion in additional agricultural assistance from Congress,” Galloway reported. “The proposal would provide $10 billion for row and specialty crop producers with crops planted in 2026. The proposal also urges Congress to pass year-round E15.”