Farmer Tariff Aid Shrinking After Trade Deals?

Brownfield Ag News’ Nicole Heslip reported that “the Deputy Secretary of Agriculture says trade deal negotiations during the shutdown could impact the possibility of farmer assistance this year. During a call with reporters on Monday, Stephen Vaden said dynamics have changed since the end of September.”

“‘Most notably, the President successfully negotiated trade deals almost everywhere the man went,’ he stressed,” according to Heslip’s reporting. “‘Whether we’re talking about China, but I equally want to pay attention to Southeast Asia, Pakistan, and Japan. Those have resulted in major commitments to buy American commodities.’ He says USDA will be considering its influence on commodity markets into the new year before any decisions are made about additional relief.”

The Tennessee Lookout’s Cassandra Stephenson reported that “the White House announced a trade agreement with China in October in which China agreed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, and at least 25 million metric tons each year through 2028.”

“Asked what would happen if China does not meet the 12 million metric ton agreement by the Jan. 1 deadline, a USDA spokesperson wrote that the ‘farm economy is in a difficult situation’ and Trump is ‘utilizing all the tools available to ensure farmers have what they need to continue their farming operations,'” Stephenson reported. “The USDA will ‘continue to assess the farm economy and explore the need for further assistance, however, there is nothing new to share at this time,’ the spokesperson wrote in an email to the Lookout.”

Any Farmer Assistance May Come too Late

The New York Times’ Kevin Draper reported that “for months farmers have pleaded for government aid to soften the blow of trade wars and another unprofitable harvest. But even with the Trump administration receptive to the idea and the government again open, most farmers and bankers have concluded that any aid will be too little and too late to rescue the next planting season.”

“The federal government reopened (last) Wednesday after 43 days, which Trump administration officials had said was necessary before they could finish any farmer aid plan. But even if they work on it expeditiously, it could still take months before farmers receive any checks. That would be well after the crucial winter period when farmers talk to their bankers and make decisions about the next year,” Draper reported. “…With so much uncertainty, and a hard-won skepticism that politicians will make decisions quickly or pass new legislation, a lot of farmers are in for difficult conversations with their bankers in the coming months.”

“Most farmers take out a production loan in the winter to buy seeds, fertilizer and equipment before planting in the spring,” Draper reported. “They pay back the loan in the fall after they harvest and sell their crops. But analyzing farmers’ business plans is much tougher if their bankers do not know when, or if, there will be government assistance.”

Trump Administration Previously Prepared Billions for Assistance

Politico’s Grace Yarrow and Meredith Lee Hill reported at the end of October that “the Trump administration plans to roll out an initial payment of up to $12 billion for farmers hurt by the president’s tariff policies once the government shutdown ends, according to three people familiar with the matter.”

“The finalized amount will come on top of President Donald Trump’s recently announced truce with China, which could also give some relief to U.S. producers of soybeans, sorghum and meat,” Yarrow and Lee Hill reported. “Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told reporters Thursday that a Market Facilitation Program — similar to the $28 billion farmer bailout Trump issued during his first-term trade wars — is ‘all teed up and good to go.'”

“Farmers have been grappling with tariff uncertainty, high costs for things like fertilizer and machinery, rising inflation, and other economic headwinds as they start to make decisions for next year’s planting season,” Yarrow and Lee Hill reported. “That’s added pressure on lawmakers and administration officials who’ve been working for months to ready some sort of bailout and open new trade markets.”