Corn Conditions Drop Amid Heatwave

AgWeb’s Tyne Morgan reported that, “triple-digit heat indices swept across the Midwest and Plains late last week and into the weekend, and the damage is already showing up in the numbers. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report released Monday showed the steepest week-over-week decline in corn good to excellent condition ratings for this point in the growing season in nearly 20 years, catching even the most bearish analyst estimates off guard.”

“USDA now rates the corn crop at 63% good to excellent, 25% fair, and 12% very poor to poor,” Morgan reported. “The four-point drop in the good-to-excellent category from the previous week marks the largest single-week decline of the year, and while a decline in condition ratings was expected, the drop was larger than what the trade expected leading into Monday’s report.”

“The last time condition ratings dropped at least 4 points at this point in the year was in 2007,” Morgan reported. “Other notable years with larger ratings declines for this time of year include:

2007: 5-point drop

1999: 7-point decline

1993: 4-point decline

1991: 5-point decline

1987: 8-point decline

However, if you calculate the standard index using all five categories in the report, this week’s decline marks the largest since 1999.”

Successful Farming’s Mariah Squire reported that, “as of July 26, 78% of this year’s corn crop in the top 18 corn-growing states had reached the silking stage. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 74%.”

“The USDA reported 25% of the corn crop across the 18 states had reached the dough stage as of July 26,” Squire reported. “The five-year average is 22%.”

“Last week at this time, 67% of the corn crop was in good/excellent condition,” Squire reported. “Last year at this time, 73% of the corn crop was in good/excellent condition.”

“It wasn’t just the heat, but also the lack of moisture that aided in the weekly decline,” Morgan reported. “While most states posted losses in ratings, a handful of states, including Missouri, Tennessee and North Carolina, actually eked out minor gains of less than half a point each.”

“Some of the sharpest pain, though, is showing up in the western Corn Belt and Plains,” Morgan reported. “Colorado and North Carolina are both carrying poor-to-very-poor readings near 41%. South Dakota sits at 23% poor to very poor, followed by North Dakota at 18%. Kansas is at 17%. Illinois is showing 13% of its crop in poor-to-very-poor condition.”

USDA Predicts More Favorable Temperatures Ahead

Bloomberg’s Erin Ailworth reported that, “temperatures in the western Corn Belt were expected to near or hit 100F (38C) Monday, while scattered showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt were expected to offset the heat, according to a daily weather bulletin from the US Department of Agriculture.”

“‘For the remainder of the week, any heat that has crept into the western Corn Belt will be pushed out, leaving Midwestern temperatures favorable,’ the agency said in its bulletin,” Ailworth reported. 

“‘Extended weather models continue to trend better for Midwest crops,’ StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said in a note,” Ailworth reported. “That, he said, is ‘reducing fears regarding the health of this year’s corn and soybean crops, despite blistering heat developing in the Plains and western Midwest over this past weekend.’”