RFD-TV’s Tony St. James reported that “beef imports under the Trump administration’s temporary tariff-rate quota fell well short of the first monthly allocation, limiting the amount of additional supply reaching the U.S. market, according to University of Arkansas economist James Mitchell.”
“The policy allows 300,000 metric tons of beef to enter over 90 days in three monthly tranches of 100,000 metric tons. Through September 28, only 37,486 metric tons had entered under the first tranche, leaving 62,514 metric tons unused,” St. James reported. “Mitchell estimates just 8,054 to 21,936 metric tons may represent beef that would not otherwise have entered the United States. The range reflects different comparisons using USDA forecasts and historical imports from eligible countries.”
Meatingplace’s Frank Fuhrig reported that “the tariff holiday applies only to the ‘other’ countries tariff-rate quota, in which Brazil and Paraguay are the only significant beef exporters. The White House has labelled that the ‘affordable’ TRQ.”
“Multiple Brazilian media have reported that the country’s trade ministry announced September beef sales to the United States at least 44,400 mt,” Fuhrig reported. “Even combined with Paraguayan exports, the total would only about half fill the 100,000 mt quota for September.”
The University of Arkansas’ Mitchell wrote that “the main point is that 100,000 metric tons of new beef imports did not materialize in September, and there was no noticeable change in retail beef prices. Even imported beef still has to undergo further processing and move through the marketing system before it is sold to consumers.“
“Increasing the amount of beef that can enter the United States does not mean that the full amount will be imported, nor does it mean that any increase in imports will immediately translate into lower retail beef prices,” Mitchell wrote.
Beef Prices Have Only Slightly Lowered
Politico’s Grace Yarrow and Myah Ward reported that “President Donald Trump gambled that importing more beef would lower prices enough to mitigate the political hit from angry ranchers. His bet hasn’t paid off.”
“Prices have barely budged, ranchers remain incensed, and vulnerable Republicans in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas are fighting to convince rural voters to turn out in November as farmers confront economic headwinds fueled by the president’s policies,” Yarrow and Ward reported. “‘There’s a lot of frustration and anger,’ said Glenn Brunkow, the president of the nonpartisan Kansas Farm Bureau and a fifth-generation farmer and stockman in deep-red Pottawatomie County.”
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s Bernt Nelson and Faith Parum reported that “record imports along with the suspension of the tariff-rate quota for beef trimmings have not lowered ground beef prices for consumers. In fact, American Farm Bureau analysis reveals that since the presidential proclamation, prices remained the same as before the tariff-rate quota changed in 30 of 41 tracked grocery stores across the U.S.”
“Across our sample, the average price of ground beef barely moved, going from $7.29 a pound on Sept. 2 to $7.13 a pound on Sept. 23 – a reduction of 16 cents or approximately 2%,” Nelson and Parum reported. “… The market fundamentals that raised beef prices have not gone away. Tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand continue to support higher consumer beef prices.”
