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Fertilizer and Diesel Prices Continue To Decline

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the last week of February 2023 continue to move lower. This trend has been in place for a couple months.

All eight of the major fertilizer prices are again lower compared to last month. Five of the eight fertilizers had a sizeable price decline. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

“Leading the way lower again was UAN28. The nitrogen fertilizer was 14% lower compared to last month and had an average price of $444/ton.”

“DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends,” by Russ Quinn. DTN- Progressive Farmer (March 8, 2023).

The DTN article stated that, “As long as commodity prices stay strong, fertilizer prices will too, according to a fertilizer company economist. In a DTN Ag Summit series presentation last week, Andy Jung, chief economist for Mosaic, said he sees a positive outlook for agriculture as farmers across the world have incentives to grow more crops and thus apply fertilizer.

“‘We are bullish on ag in the medium term, which includes this year and even into the next one,’ Jung said. ‘Fertilizer prices have some support for sure.'”

“The good news for farmers is nutrient prices have declined considerably compared to prices just a year ago.”

Quinn pointed out that, “All fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 6% less expensive, MAP and 10-34-0 are both 12% lower, potash is 18% less expensive, UAN32 is 25% lower, UAN28 is 26% less expensive, urea is 27% lower and anhydrous is 28% less expensive compared to a year prior.”

Meanwhile, in its weekly Grain Transportation report last week, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service stated that, “For the week ending March 6, the U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased 1.2 cents from the previous week to $4.282 per gallon, 56.7 cents below the same week last year. The diesel price has fallen a total of 34 cents since the week ending January 30.

“From the week ending February 27 to the week ending March 6, diesel prices fell in all regions except the Midwest, where it rose 1.1 cents. According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the diesel price is projected to average $4.17 per gallon in 2023, down 6 cents from the February Outlook. In 2024, the price is projected to average $3.73 per gallon, up 3 cents from EIA’s February Outlook.”

Keith Good Photo

Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.

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