Agricultural Economy

Grain futures ended 2023 significantly in the red, according to recent Reuters reporting from Brendan O’Brien, with corn futures suffering their “biggest yearly drop in a decade while wheat and soybeans also posted steep annual declines after bumper harvests in Brazil and resilient Black Sea trade tempered concerns about weather and war.” The most active […]

Financial Times writer Susannah Savage reported yesterday that, “The price of corn has tumbled to a three-year low as supplies from the US and Brazil surge while demand stagnates, helping to cool food price inflation but heaping pressure on farmers who had been expecting high prices to last.”

“The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Thursday that, “Farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2023 after reaching record highs in 2022. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $182.8 billion in calendar year 2022, increasing $42.4 billion (30.2 percent) from 2021 in nominal dollars.”

New York Times writers Max Bearak, Dionne Searcey and Mira Rojanasakul reported yesterday that, “Vast stretches of America are dominated by corn, nearly 100 million acres of it, stretching from Ohio to the Dakotas. What once was forest or open prairie today produces the corn that feeds people, cattle and, when made into ethanol, cars.”

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices saw mixed moves again during the second week of November 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.”

In an article last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, “Farm incomes fell going into harvest, but finances remained solid,” Joe Mahon pointed out that, “Farmers always have a lot riding on harvests. But heading into this year’s fall harvest, they were also contending with lower incomes, due to falling output prices and high production costs.”

Bloomberg writers Clarice Couto, Tarso Veloso, and Michael Hirtzer reported late last week that, “Parched fields and scorching heat have delayed soybean planting in the world’s biggest grower, imperiling the upcoming corn crop that can’t even begin until soy has been reaped.”

Nate Kauffman and Ty Kreitman, writing in last week’s Ag Credit Survey from the Kansas City Fed, noted that, “Farm income and producer liquidity cooled in recent months alongside lower commodity prices.”

Last week, in its Third Quarter 2023 Ag Bulletin, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City indicated that, “The U.S. agricultural economy softened in the third quarter alongside a drop in commodity prices.”

On Thursday, in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s quarterly AgLetter, David Oppedahl explained that, “The District had a year-over-year gain of only 5 percent in its agricultural land values in the third quarter of 2023.”

Bloomberg writer Kim Chipman reported on Friday that, “Corn futures extended losses, trading near a three-year low, on forecasts that the US farmers will collect a record harvest this season.”

Reuters writer Tom Polansek reported yesterday that, “U.S. farmers will produce a record corn crop this year, the government said on Thursday, sending futures prices to a three-year low.”

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the U.S. focused portion of its upcoming Agricultural Projections to 2033 report.  The full report is due to be released in February 2024.

Reuters writer Nigel Hunt reported on Friday that, “The United Nations food agency’s world price index fell in October to its lowest level in more than two years, driven by declines in sugar, cereals, vegetable oils and meat.”

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported earlier this week that, “Average retail prices for all but one fertilizer were higher during the third week of October 2023 compared to last month, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.”

DTN writer Katie Micik Dehlinger reported yesterday that, “The average daily close of the December corn futures contract was $4.88 during October, while the November soybean contract was $12.84 per bushel.”

DTN writer Todd Neeley reported yesterday that, “Retail prices of all eight major fertilizers continued to climb in the third week of October, with anhydrous leading the way while farmers continued to hit the fields.”

Donnelle Eller reported on the front page of Tuesday’s Des Moines Register that, “Following two years of record highs, Iowa farmland values have plateaued: Rising interest rates, declining profits and drought are cooling buyers’ enthusiasm, experts say.”

In an update late last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Smaller Operating Loans Slow Lending Activity”), Nate Kauffman and Ty Kreitman indicated that, “Farm lending activity at commercial banks slowed further in the third quarter alongside a drop in operating loan volumes.”