Bloomberg writers Agnieszka de Sousa and Aine Quinn reported on Friday that, “Global food costs fell to the lowest level in two years in May, reviving hopes that sticky inflation on supermarket shelves will start to ease.”
Farm Policy News
U.S. Requests USMCA Dispute Settlement Consultations on Mexico’s Ag Biotech Measures
Kristina Peterson reported in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal that, “The U.S. on Friday stepped up its efforts to get Mexico to ease its restrictions on genetically modified corn, after more than a year of high-level discussions between the two countries failed to resolve the dispute.”
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- May 2023
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its May 2023 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.”
U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2023 Forecast Down, Lower Grain Exports Expected
On Wednesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).
U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Improves, While “Ukraine’s Farmers Face Deadly Planting Season”
Reuters writers Julie Ingwersen and Tom Polansek reported yesterday that, “The condition of the drought-hit U.S. winter wheat crop has improved more than analysts expected, while the nation’s corn is in worse shape than last year, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Tuesday.”
Kansas City Fed: Ag Credit Conditions Strong, “Alongside Some Moderation in the Farm Economy”
In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Credit Conditions and Farmland Values on Solid Footing as Farm Economy Moderates”), Nate Kauffman and Ty Kreitman indicated that, “Agricultural credit conditions remained strong in the first quarter, but improvement slowed alongside some moderation in the farm economy.”
China Trade Issues in Focus
Financial Times writers Joe Leahy and James Politi reported last week that, “China’s commerce minister and his US counterpart have raised concerns about their countries’ trade and investment policies at a meeting in Washington but pledged to keep channels of communication open in the first visit by a senior Chinese official to the US capital since 2020.”
Supreme Court Limits EPA’s Authority Over Wetlands
Jan Wolfe and Jess Bravin reported on the front page of today’s Wall Street Journal that, “The Supreme Court limited the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority over wetlands in a decision with broad ramifications for the environment, agriculture, energy and mining.”
In Iowa, Record High Cash Rents, Up 9% in 2023
DTN Farm Business Editor Katie Dehlinger reported yesterday that, “The average cash rental rate for Iowa farmland climbed 9% in 2023 to $279 per acre, according to an annual survey conducted by Iowa State University Extension.”
China Shifting From Corn to Wheat in Animal Feed, as U.S. Drought Takes Toll on Hay Market
Reuters writers Dominique Patton and Naveen Thukral reported today that, “A surplus of cheap wheat in China is replacing significant volumes of corn in its huge animal feed market, say feed makers and analysts, curbing consumption of both corn and soymeal and potentially reducing demand for imports.”
Wheat Variables in Focus- U.S. Winter Wheat Condition Improves Slightly
Reuters writer Julie Ingwersen reported yesterday that, “The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report rated 31% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from a week earlier and above an average of analysts’ expectations.”
Drought Plagues Kansas Winter Wheat Farmers, but “Global Wheat Market Seems to be Well-Supplied”
Reuters writer Tom Polansek reported on Monday that, “Farmers in Kansas, the biggest U.S. producer of wheat used to make bread, are abandoning their crops after a severe drought and damaging cold ravaged farms.”
Fertilizer Prices Mixed- Urea Climbs, Anhydrous Lower
DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices moved in opposite directions the second week of May 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.”
Global Grains Production “Forecast to Hit an All Time High,” as Drought “Is Shrinking” U.S. Winter Wheat Crop
Dow Jones writer Yusuf Khan reported yesterday that, “Global production of wheat, corn, barley and other grains is forecast to hit an all time high in the forthcoming season, as strong supplies of corn in particular drive food production to record levels.”
Black Sea Grain Deal Extended for Two Months
Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Gulsin Harman reported in today’s New York Times that, “Ukraine and Russia agreed Wednesday to a two-month extension of a wartime deal that allows Ukraine to ship its grain across the Black Sea, a rare example of cooperation between the two countries.”
Global Soybean Production Forecast at Record Level, on Record Crops in Brazil, U.S.
In its monthly Oil Crops Outlook report yesterday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated that, “U.S. soybean production for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) is projected to climb by more than 5 percent to a record high of 4.5 billion bushels based on higher yield and marginally higher planted area.”
Global Corn, Wheat Production Forecast at a Record, While El Niño “a Potent New Variable”
In its monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report late last week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, “Global corn production is forecast to sharply increase, driven primarily by a forecast of continued high production in Brazil and rebounds in the United States and Argentina. Supplies in Ukraine are forecast to fall as the ongoing war limits production.”
Record U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Expected, as U.S. Wheat “Stockpiles to Fall to 16-Year Low”
Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Tarso Veloso Ribeiro reported on Friday that, “America’s wheat fields have become so plagued by drought that farmers are now poised to abandon crops at the highest rate in more than a century.”
Federal Reserve Ag Credit Surveys- 2023 First Quarter
Late last week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the first quarter of 2023. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas also released its Agricultural Survey for the first quarter in late March.
Fertilizer Prices: “Somewhat Varied”
DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “For the first time in several months retail fertilizer prices are somewhat varied, according to prices tracked by DTN for the first week of May 2023.”