Farm Policy News

This weekend in Buenos Aires, President Trump took important trade policy action that could impact U.S. agricultural markets.  After signing the USMCA, the president indicated that he would quickly withdraw from NAFTA, in an effort to pressure the legislative branch into action on the updated trade measure.  Meanwhile, a White House statement at the conclusion of the president’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping Saturday night, indicated that, “China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.”

In its latest quarterly forecast for U.S. agricultural trade on Thursday, USDA reduced its fiscal year (October/September) 2019 export projections, “largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton.”  And news articles this week provided additional insight into the market ramifications of the ongoing trade war with China, while trade aid payments from USDA have begun […]

As policy observers anticipate a meeting later this month between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires, recent news items continue to highlight the adverse impacts ongoing trade disputes are having on some sectors of the U.S. agricultural economy.  The trade war is also providing economic incentives for robust Chinese investment in its domestic agricultural production.

Reuters writers P.J. Huffstutter and Karl Plume reported Wednesday that, “Clouds crowded the Illinois sky as Nick Harre walked away from his combine at the peak of harvest to join four fellow farmers in greeting some unlikely visitors.

Updated monthly data last week from the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided additional insight into how the ongoing U.S. trade dispute with China is impacting the soybean market. Today’s update looks briefly at portions of the USDA data, as well as recent news articles that have discussed U.S. agricultural export variables, and ongoing trade issues with China.

In its latest quarterly forecast for U.S. agricultural trade, USDA indicated that, “For fiscal 2018, the [agricultural export] forecast of $144.0 billion is an increase of $1.5 billion from the previous forecast in May, largely due to higher corn, cotton, and soybean meal exports.”

Recent news articles demonstrate that tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities are having an impact not only on the quantity of U.S. goods exported to China, but also the flow of some agricultural products within the U.S., and 2019 acreage allocation decisions by farmers.  Meanwhile, a recent Wall Street Journal article reported that, “President Trump said the U.S. is getting much closer to a trade deal with China, a sign of optimism ahead of the Group of 20 leaders summit in Argentina later this month.”

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China persist, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. commodities continue to roil markets.  Despite a variety of impeding economic variables, a news article notes that the current ag economy is sturdier than when the 1980s farm crisis unfolded.  Meanwhile, export competitors move forward with a Trans Pacific Partnership agreement, while the benefits of the new USMCA may be overshadowed by ongoing tariff disputes.

Recent news items continue to discuss the impacts of trade tariffs on agricultural commodities, including soybeans, dairy products, and pork.  Meanwhile, separate articles have focused on executive branch trade policy perspective with respect to China, as well as as the administration’s view on potential trade mitigation payments for 2019.