The world’s farmers face soaring fertilizer and fuel prices as the war in the Middle East escalates, leaving some scrambling for supplies as the spring planting season approaches and causing some to rethink their planting prospects.
Trade
Fertilizer Prices Have ‘Significant’ Rise After Attack on Iran
As a result of the attack on Iran, nitrogen fertilizer at the port of New Orleans has seen an increase in price this week. Urea prices for barges in New Orleans traded $520/ton to $550/ton on Monday, up from an average of $475/ton last week, according to CRU Group.
Attack on Iran Could Disrupt Global Fertilizer Markets
A prolonged military conflict in the Middle East could potentially upend key commodity markets due to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important trade routes. America’s crop growers could see fresh price spikes for inputs like fertilizer while battling a multi-year downturn in profitability, experts warned ahead of the attack.
Beef, Most Fertilizers Exempt from New Trump Tariffs
A new 10% tariff on goods from around the world took effect Tuesday — with a list of exemptions including beef. Other exemptions affecting the food and agriculture industries include trade-deal compliant goods from Canada and Mexico and some fertilizers.
Ag Industry Calls for Trade Certainty After SCOTUS Strikes Down Trump Tariffs
U.S. agriculture groups responded to the Supreme Court striking down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs by calling for increased certainty in trade policy and carveouts for ag inputs in any new tariffs. But, President Donald Trump already said on Saturday he will raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on U.S. imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law.
U.S. to Quadruple Beef Imports from Argentina
President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order temporarily expanding the amount of beef the U.S. can import from Argentina, a move the White House says is aimed at lowering prices but that the nation’s largest cattle industry group disputes.
China Turning to Brazil Soybeans After Meeting US Purchase Pledge
China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has ramped up orders for Brazilian cargoes of the oilseed after meeting an initial shipment volume from the US as part of a trade truce with Washington.
Tariff Revenue from Ag Input Imports was Nearly $1 Billion in 2025
Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration collected an estimated $958 million in revenue from selected agricultural inputs from February to October of 2025, according to North Dakota State University’s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor. Of that, about $530 million came from farm machinery, $273 million came from agricultural chemicals, $110 million came from fertilizers and $44 million came from seeds.
China Reaches 12 Million Ton US Soybean Purchase Pledge
China has bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that volume by the end of February, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday, after a late-October trade truce spurred buying.
Farm Economy to Stabilize in 2026, Ag Economists Predict
As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops.
China’s US Soy Purchases Approach 10 Million Tons
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, three traders told Reuters on Tuesday. China’s total purchases from the latest U.S. crop were now estimated at 8.5 million to nearly 10 million tons, according to traders and analysts, representing up to 80% of the 12 million metric tons that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by the end of February.
Venezuela Turmoil Could Open Opportunities for US Ag
The ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could lead to export opportunities for U.S. ag products, although much depends on the U.S.’ next move and how consumers respond, analysts say.
China Reaches 8 MMT of US Soybeans Purchased in 2025
China has bought at least 8 million tons of US soybeans this year, according to people familiar with the matter, putting the world’s top importer on track to meet a pledge it made two months ago as part of an apparent trade truce with Washington.
USDA Projects $37 Billion Ag Trade Deficit in FY26
The USDA is projecting that the ag trade deficit will shrink in FY2026 even more than previously anticipated. USDA expects the trade deficit to fall from $43.7 billion in FY2025 to $37 billion in FY2026, according to its quarterly trade forecast published Tuesday. In its previous report issued in August, USDA had projected a trade deficit of $41.5 billion this fiscal year.
China Halfway to Promised 12 MMT of US Soybean Purchases
China has secured at least 7 million tons of US soybeans after heavy buying in the past two weeks, passing the halfway mark toward meeting its 12-million ton purchase agreement with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the deals.
China Soybean Buying Deadline Now February, Bessent Says
China is on pace to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday, appearing to extend an earlier deadline for Beijing’s purchases.
Farmer Aid Announcement Coming Next Week, Rollins Says
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a ‘bridge payment’ for farmers next week that is designed to provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized.
Experts Split on Whether China will Meet Soybean Purchase Pledge
China is expected to step up US soybean purchases to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by the end of the year, according to multiple traders, while farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found more than three-quarters (76%) of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year.
Deere’s 2026 Outlook Suggests No Farm Economy Uptick
Deere & Co.’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a recovery in the US farm economy as uncertainty continues to swirl over the impact of tariffs and trade deals. Deere said net income in the 2026 fiscal year will be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion. That would be a drop from the $5.027 billion reported for the year just ended.
US Soybeans Set for First Shipment to China Since May
Two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters. A third vessel was en route to a Texas Gulf Coast grain terminal to be loaded with China-bound U.S. sorghum in the coming days.