Bloomberg writers Kateryna Choursina and Aine Quinn reported on Monday that, “From his post at the mouth of the Black Sea, Ukrainian ship inspector Ruslan Sakhautdinov has seen his Russian counterparts repeatedly slow the flow of his country’s grain abroad — from scrutinizing fuel gauges to crews’ personal belongings.”
Keith Good
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
Tension With China, The Largest Market for U.S. Ag Exports
In prepared remarks at a Senate Farm Bill hearing last week, Alexis Taylor, USDA’s Under Secretary of Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, explained that, “With a population of 1.4 billion and a middle class the size of the entire United States, the PRC [People’s Republic of China] is the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports.”
For 10th Consecutive Month, World Food Prices Fall
Reuters writer Crispian Balmer reported today that, “World food prices fell in January for a 10th consecutive month, and are now down some 18% from a record high hit last March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations food agency said on Friday.”
AMIS: Fertilizer Prices Down More Than 40% Since Last Spring; “Significant Price Declines” Continue, DTN
In its February Market Monitor report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) indicated that, “Fertilizer prices have declined by more than 40 percent since hitting record (nominal) highs last spring, especially due to recent drops in natural gas prices and fertilizer plants reopening in Europe.”
FAS Reports Highlight Brazil and Argentina Crop Production and Exports
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated in a report this week, “Brazil: Grain and Feed Update,” that, “Brazilian agricultural production is expected to continue growing in 2023, maintaining the trend of producing another record-breaking grain harvest.”
Jan. 1 Cattle Inventory Down 3%, Beef Cow Herd Lowest Since 1962; While China Owned North Dakota Corn Mill Draws Focus
Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Elizabeth Elkin reported yesterday that, “Steaks and hamburgers will likely be more expensive in the next few years with US cattle shrinking to its lowest herd since 2014.”
Brazil, U.S., Ukraine, Australia Grain Exports, and China Growth, in Focus
Bloomberg writers Tarso Veloso Ribeiro and Michael Hirtzer reported late last week that, “Global demand for corn will come back to the US in the coming months, according to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., one of the world’s biggest crop traders.”
FT: “World’s Food Supplies Still Under Threat,” “Multiple Risks Remain,” Notes Bloomberg News
Emiko Terazono reported on Saturday at The Financial Times Online that, “Fertiliser and crop prices have fallen sharply since their peaks after last year’s Russian attack on Ukraine.”
FAS Report Highlights China’s Corn Imports From Brazil; While Rice Prices Climb
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated in a report this week, “China: Grain and Feed Update,” that, “Post forecasts MY2022/23 corn imports at 18 MMT, the same as USDA’s official estimate.”
DTN: Retail Fertilizer Price Trends, “Considerably Lower,” While Mexico Hopes to Reduce Corn Imports
DTN writer Russ Quinn reported yesterday that, “Most average retail fertilizer prices were lower the third week of January 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.”
Kansas City Fed: Gradual Increase in Farm Lending Persists
In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Rebound in Farm Lending Continues,” Cortney Cowley and Ty Kreitman indicated that, “Farm lending activity continued to increase gradually alongside further growth in loan sizes.”
USDA, USTR Officials Meet in Mexico on Corn-Import Law; Wheat Dips
Bloomberg writer Eric Martin reported yesterday that, “Mexico’s proposed changes to a planned ban on imports of US corn are insufficient, the Biden administration warned, saying that it continues to consider all of its rights to respond under the free-trade agreement between the nations.”
WSJ: “Worst U.S. Avian Flu Outbreak” Persists, “There is No Historical Context for This”
Dan Frosch reported in today’s Wall Street Journal that, “Nearly a year after it began, the worst avian-influenza outbreak in U.S. history is continuing to decimate poultry flocks across the Midwest and Colorado, frustrating efforts to keep the virus from affecting the nation’s egg prices and supply.”
U.S. Sorghum Exports Dwindle on “Near-Evaporation” of Chinese Demand, as China Looks to Brazilian Corn
In its monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report for January, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, “U.S. sorghum exports for 2022/23 are forecast down 1.5 million tons to 2.5 million (Oct-Sep), the lowest since 2018/19 and the second-lowest volume of the last decade.”
ERS: “Wholesale Table-Egg Prices Peaked in December”
In its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report yesterday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service indicated that, “Table-egg production was estimated at 635.0 million dozen in November.”
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- January 2023
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its January 2023 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
China: Pork Prices Fall, While Soybean Production Improves, as Covid Hits Countryside
Bloomberg writer Jinglu Gu reported today that, “China is ramping up Covid preparations in rural areas ahead of Lunar New Year holidays that may unleash a surge in infections across some of the country’s poorest regions.”
In “Historic Shift,” China’s Population Falls, as its Economic Growth “Near-Historic Low”
Eleanor Olcott and Sun Yu reported yesterday at The Financial Times Online that, “China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades in a historic shift that is expected to have long-term consequences for the domestic and global economies.”
FAS: Record U.S. FY 2022 Agricultural Exports to China
In a report this month from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “Record U.S. FY 2022 Agricultural Exports to China,” Graham Soley indicated that, “U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year.”
Food Prices Increased 0.3% in December, Up 10% From a Year Ago- Eggs Climb 59.9% Annually
Financial Times writers Colby Smith and Kate Duguid reported yesterday that, “Annual US inflation fell in December to its lowest level in more than a year, in a further sign that price pressures have peaked amid the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to tighten monetary policy.”