On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its November 2021 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Keith Good
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
2021 Farm Sector Income Forecast, December
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Wednesday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase by $22.0 billion (23.2 percent) from 2020 to $116.8 billion in 2021. This expected increase follows a forecast increase of $15.7 billion (19.9 percent) in 2020.”
Fertilizer: Risk of “Spring Scramble” for Supplies
Last week, Reuters writer Rod Nickel reported that, “A global shortage of nitrogen fertilizer is driving prices to record levels, prompting North America’s farmers to delay purchases and raising the risk of a spring scramble to apply the crop nutrient before planting season.”
Kansas City Fed: Farmland Values Surge
In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Farm Real Estate Values Rise Sharply,” Nathan Kauffman and Ty Kreitman stated that, “Farmland values surged in the third quarter according to Federal Reserve Surveys of Agricultural Credit Conditions.”
U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at Record in Fiscal Year 2022
On Tuesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).
China’s Phase One Purchases Slow
Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that, “China pulled back on its already halting progress toward meeting its U.S. trade deal targets, slowing purchases of all types of goods covered by the agreement despite calls from the Biden administration for Beijing to adhere to its commitments.”
China’s Soy Imports Slump in October, as “U.S. Pork Exports to Mexico Show Promise”
Reuters writers Hallie Gu, Cheng Leng and Shivani Singh reported recently that, “China’s October soybean imports from the United States fell sharply from the previous year, customs data showed on Sunday, hit by poor demand and limited exports.”
“World Fertilizer Prices Continue to Soar,” as 2022 U.S. Acreage Considerations Underway
Bloomberg writer Elizabeth Elkin reported on Friday that, “World fertilizer prices continue to soar as tightening supplies send costs up for farmers and consumers across the globe.”
Minneapolis Fed: Farm Income, Land Values, and Cash Rents Climb in Third-Quarter
In an article last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, “Even with severe drought and supply chain woes, farms remain in good financial shape,” Joe Mahon pointed out that, “A year into a tenuous recovery in agriculture driven as much by government support as by market conditions, widespread and severe drought could be expected to be a major setback.”
EPA Seeks to Re-establish Pre-2015 Definition of “Waters of the United States” (WOTUS)
DTN writer Todd Neeley reported this week that, “The Navigable Waters Protection Rule would be repealed and replaced with pre-2015 definitions of waters of the U.S. in a proposal released by EPA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Thursday.”
EPA Proposes Biofuel Blending Compliance Extension
Reuters writers Stephanie Kelly and Jarrett Renshaw reported this week that, “The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday proposed giving oil refiners more time to prove compliance with the nation’s 2020 and 2021 biofuel blending mandates.”
On Robust Demand From China, U.S. Beef Exports Climb in September, Set Quarterly Record
In its November Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report this week, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated that, “September beef exports totaled 289 million pounds, up 20.9 percent (or 49.9 million pounds) from a year earlier.”
Biden, Xi Hold Virtual Summit, as Brazilian Soy and Corn from Ukraine in Focus
Wall Street Journal writers Gordon Lubold, Alex Leary and Lingling Wei reported in Tuesday’s paper that, “President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping used a virtual meetingMonday evening to cool tensions between the two powers as the leaders seek to manage issues they disagree on and identify ways to communicate to avert conflict.”
Federal Reserve Ag Credit Surveys- 2021 Third Quarter Farmland Values Soar
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Kansas City released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the third quarter of 2021.
Port Crunch Hits U.S. Farm Exports- Containers Head Back to Asia ASAP- Often Empty
New York Times writer Ana Swanson reported on the front page of Monday’s paper that, “A supply chain crisis for imports has grabbed national headlines and attracted the attention of the Biden administration, as shoppers fret about securing gifts in time for the holidays and as strong consumer demand for couches, electronics, toys and clothing pushes inflation to its highest level in three decades.”
Fertilizer: “Supply Disruptions Push Prices to New Highs”
Last week, DTN writer Katie Micik Dehlinger reported that, “The average retail price of anhydrous set a record this week at $1,113/ton after increasing 38% from last month.”
Wheat and Ethanol Prices Climb
In its November Wheat Outlook report on Friday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated that, “The 2021/22 Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP) is raised 20 cents per bushel to $6.90 based on the continued strong farmgate prices as reported in the October 29 National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Agricultural Prices report as well as rising futures and cash prices.”
China’s Coarse Grain Imports for 2020/21, Doubles the Previous Record
Earlier this week, in its Grain: Worlds Market and Trade report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “China coarse grain imports for 2020/21 are now complete.”
WASDE Reveals Record Wheat Trade, as China Wheat Imports Soared Over the Past Year
Bloomberg writer Megan Durisin reported this week that, “Global wheat exports will reach an all-time high as Russia, the European Union, India and Ukraine are all shipping out more than expected.”
Signs of Easing Chinese Demand, a Variable in Soy, Corn Availability
Reuters News reported this week that, “China’s soybean imports in October fell 41.2% from a year earlier, hitting the lowest level since March 2020, customs data showed on Sunday, as poor crush margins curbed demand and Hurricane Ida limited U.S. shipments.”