Reuters writers Hallie Gu, Muyu Xu and Tony Munroe reported last week that, “China’s imports of U.S. soybeans surged in December from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, as China ramped up purchases during a thaw in the two country’s trade war.”
Keith Good
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
President Trump Signs the USMCA
New York Times writers Ana Swanson and Emily Cochrane reported on Wednesday that, “President Trump signed the revised North American Free Trade Agreement into law on Wednesday, fulfilling a key campaign promise and bringing more than two years of tumultuous negotiations over the continent’s trade rules to a close.”
Federal Appellate Court Decision, and GAO Review Highlight Biofuel Waiver Issues
In separate developments this month, a federal appellate court and the U.S. Government Accountability Office, have weighed in with actions that could impact how biofuel waivers that exempt oil refineries from Renewable Fuel Standard requirements are granted. Today’s update looks briefly at each of these issues.
Costs of Corn and Soybean Production in 2020, ISU Report
In a recent update from Iowa State University Extension (“Estimating costs of crop production vital for 2020
farm businesses”), Alejandro Plastina explained that, “Thin profit margins in corn and soybean production have become the norm over the past five years, increasing the need for proper budgeting and marketing strategies among crop producers.”
U.S. Agricultural Trade Developments: China, the European Union, and India
Trade issues continue to be an important executive branch focal point; today’s update takes a closer look at recent news items regarding agricultural trade with China, the European Union and India.
The Navigable Waters Protection Rule – A New Definition of WOTUS
A news release from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday stated that, “Today, at an event at the National Association of Home Builders International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas, EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler and Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works R.D. James will announce a new, clear definition for ‘waters of the United States.'”
Kansas City Fed: Farm Lending Declines For a Second Consecutive Quarter
In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Farm Lending Declines at End of 2019”), Nathan Kauffman stated that, “The volume of agricultural lending at commercial banks remained elevated, but declined for a second consecutive quarter. Total non-real estate farm loans decreased about 12 percent in the fourth quarter and declined over consecutive quarters for the first time since early 2017.”
Uncertainty Lingers Regarding Chinese Purchases of U.S. Farm Goods
Bloomberg writers Mike Dorning and Michael Hirtzer reported last week that, “President Donald Trump’s phase-one trade deal with China offers the promise of more overseas sales for American farmers, but the impact of the agreement remains unclear.”
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- January 2020
Last week, the Federal Reserve Board released its January 2020 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Senate Passes USMCA, Providing Reassurance and Certainty to Farmers
Wall Street Journal writer William Mauldin reported on Thursday that, “The U.S. Senate easily passed an overhaul of North America’s trade rules on Thursday, sending a major Trump administration priority to the president’s desk.”
U.S., China Sign Phase One Trade Deal- Agricultural Purchases Included
Financial Times writer James Politi reported on Wednesday that, “The US and China have signed an agreement to pause the trade war that has weighed on the global economy for nearly two years, while leaving in place tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports.”
African Swine Fever Continues to Propel “Profound” Market Changes
Last week, Financial Times writers Emiko Terazono, Andres Schipani and Jamie Smyth reported that, “China’s African swine fever epidemic has dramatically reshaped the global meat market and its trade patterns in the 18 months since the outbreak was first officially acknowledged.”
“Dimmed” Hopes That China Will Double U.S. Farm Purchases, as Phase-One Deal Signing on Schedule
Lingling Wei reported in Friday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Chinese President Xi Jinping’s chief trade negotiator will travel to Washington early next week to sign a phase-one trade deal with the U.S., China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday, the first official confirmation by Beijing on the signing of an agreement that could help ease bilateral tensions.”
USMCA Moving Forward, Timeline Uncertain
William Mauldin reported in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal that, “A Senate committee approved a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement, despite criticism from some lawmakers that it lacks sufficient protections for U.S. companies.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Ag Credit Survey- Fourth Quarter 2019, MFP Payments Noted
Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Agricultural Survey for the Fourth Quarter of 2019.
Brazil Forecast to Overtake U.S. as Leading Soybean Producer, USDA- FAS Report
A recent report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world during the 2019/20 season.”
Phase-One Deal Set for January 15th, as Chinese Imports of U.S. Soybeans Surge in November
Wall Street Journal writers Bob Davis, Andrew Restuccia and Lingling Wei reported on Tuesday that, “President Trump said he would sign the recently negotiated phase-one trade deal with China in Washington on Jan. 15—marking a formal truce in the U.S-China trade war—and would later travel to Beijing to negotiate a broader pact.”
$40 Billion of U.S. Farm Purchases Viable, According to JCI
Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Tom Daly reported late last week that, “China will make good on a pledge to purchase more than $40 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products under the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal between the two countries, China’s top agriculture consultancy said on Friday.”
Frustration From the Corn Belt Over EPA Biofuel Refinery Waivers
Bloomberg writer Jennifer A Dlouhy reported this week that, “The Trump administration on Thursday set relatively flat quotas for plant-based fuels in 2020, rebuffing ethanol and biodiesel allies who said the targets don’t do enough to support the industry.”
African Swine Fever: An “Unprecedented Impact” in the Year of the Pig
News articles continue to point to various market disruptions caused by the ongoing African Swine Fever outbreak in Asia and beyond. Today’s update looks at a few of these items in more detail.