On Thursday, Wall Street Journal writers Lingling Wei, Chao Deng and Josh Zumbrun reported that, “China is looking to narrow the scope of its negotiations with the U.S. to only trade matters, seeking to put thornier national-security issues on a separate track in a bid to break deadlocked talks with the U.S.”
Keith Good
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- August 2019
Last week, the Federal Reserve Board released its August 2019 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
U.S., China Trade Talks Set to Resume; Agricultural Export Markets Continue to Adjust
Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Dominic Carey reported last week that, “The trade war between the U.S. and China continues to surprise agricultural markets, even delivering an unexpected reprieve for American farmers who have otherwise been roiled by the conflict.”
Executive Branch Biofuels Draft Plan Falls Short of Expectations
Reuters writers Chris Prentice and Stephanie Kelly reported late last week that, “U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with Department of Agriculture and Environmental Protection Agency officials late Thursday to consider a plan that would include boosting biofuels requirements for 2020 by 1 billion gallons, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.”
On Ethanol, President Trump Plans to Regain Farmers’ Trust
Late last month, Des Moines Register writer Stephen Gruber-Miller reported that, “Gov. Kim Reynolds called President Donald Trump ‘an advocate for farmers’ on [August 27th], but said he may not have understood the damage caused by the ethanol waivers his administration granted.”
USDA Agricultural Trade Outlook- FY19 Export Forecast Lowered Again
Gary Crawford explained in a segment for USDA Radio on Thursday that, “Back in May, Agricultural Department analysts were forecasting this 2019 Fiscal Year’s U.S. ag exports to be $137 billion, down $4.5 billion from their previous forecast, and down $6.3 billion from 2018…In their latest look [on Thursday], they have sliced another $2.5 billion off the forecast.”
2019 Farm Sector Income Forecast, August
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Friday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase $4.0 billion (4.8 percent) from 2018 to $88.0 billion in 2019. Net cash farm income is forecast to increase $7.6 billion (7.3 percent) to $112.6 billion.”
U.S. and Japan Reach a Trade Deal in Principle
Wall Street Journal writer Rebecca Ballhaus reported earlier this week that, “President Trump said Sunday the U.S. and Japan had reached a trade deal ‘in principle’ that would pave the way for more U.S. farm exports to Japan, while dropping the threat of increased U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars.”
To Mitigate the Fallout from Waivers, Trump Administration Looks at Biofuel-Blending Quotas
Late last week, Bloomberg writers Jennifer A Dlouhy and Mario Parker reported that, “Top Trump administration officials met Thursday to consider options for quelling a backlash in politically important farm states over recent biofuel policy moves, including revoking waivers given to some oil refineries from requirements they use renewable fuel such as corn-based ethanol.”
As U.S, China Trade War Escalates, American Farm Goods are Targeted Again
Alan Rappeport and Keith Bradsher reported on the front page of Saturday’s New York Times that, “On Friday, China said it would increase tariffs on $75 billion worth of American goods, including crude oil, automobiles and farm products like soybeans, pork and corn in response to Mr. Trump’s plan to tax an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in September and December.”
Impacts of Unprecedented Spring Weather Linger as Yield Assessments Unfold
Wall Street Journal writer Lauren Silva Laughlin reported earlier this month that, “Losses are popping up in farmers’ income statements and the pain can be seen in the share prices of the companies that depend on them. After a challenging planting season due to wet weather, trade uncertainty has ravaged farm profitability. Flooding throughout the spring caused what JPMorgan Chase deemed a ‘planting season from hell.'”
Trump Administration Mulls Policy Options After Biofuels Waiver Backlash
Reuters writers Jarrett Renshaw and Humeyra Pamuk reported this week that, “President Donald Trump’s administration has been scrambling to stem the tide of rising anger in Farm Belt states after its decision this month to allow numerous oil refiners to mix less ethanol into their gasoline, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.”
Trump Administration Grants Small Refinery Biofuel Waivers, Stirring Ire from Sen. Grassley and Farm State Lawmakers
Earlier this month, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted 31 small refinery biofuel waivers for 2018, an action relating to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that has caused concern among farmers and some Midwestern lawmakers that demand for ethanol and other biofuels could be curtailed. The RFS has been a source of conflict between the executive branch and legislative branch, and news that President Trump intervened in this month’s waiver decision has all but assured that clashes will continue.
Recent Perspectives on U.S. Farmland Values
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released a report providing an outlook on farmland values and agricultural credit conditions for the second quarter of 2019. Recall that other Federal Reserve Districts released similar reports last week. A summary of Federal Reserve District agricultural land value and credit reports from the first quarter of 2019 can be found here. Meanwhile, recent updates from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Purdue University have also provided additional perspective on farmland values.
U.S. Backtracks on Some Chinese Tariffs Until December
On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced that some recently announced tariffs on Chinese imports would be postponed until December. And a report this week indicated that the ongoing trade war continues to be a factor impacting the soybean market.
U.S., China Trade War Persists as Markets Adjust and Farmers’ Concerns Grow
Today’s update features recent news items that provide background information into the long running U.S., China trade war. Articles highlighting the trade conflict’s impact on agriculture, including ramifications on markets and farm income, are also included.
Federal Reserve Ag Credit Surveys- 2019 Second Quarter Farm Economy Conditions
This week, the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Kansas City and Minneapolis released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the second quarter of 2019. And earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Agricultural Survey for the second quarter of 2019. Today’s update highlights core findings from the Fed reports.
Trade War Escalates: China Halts Purchases of U.S. Farm Products
The U.S., China trade war escalated this week as news articles reported that China has halted its purchases of U.S. agricultural products.
Farm Economy: Loan Repayment Rates, Debt, Bankruptcy, and Production Expenses
Recent news items have highlighted variables associated with the agricultural economy, including: loan repayment rates, debt levels, bankruptcy filings and agricultural production expenses. Today’s update includes a brief recap of some of these articles and reports.
President Trump Announces Additional Tariffs on China; Beijing Pledged to Respond
U.S. and Chinese officials held trade talks on Wednesday in China. News reports noted that increased purchases of U.S. agricultural products were discussed, although no significant breakthroughs were announced at the conclusion of the meeting. Additional talks are scheduled to take place in September. Meanwhile, recent trade data shows that big agricultural purchases by China remain elusive; and on Thursday, President Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports.