Financial Times writer Susannah Savage reported yesterday that, “The price of wheat has been pushed to a near three-year low by an exceptionally strong crop in Russia, but analysts warn that an escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea and high levels of hedge fund bets risk causing a renewed spike.”
Farm Policy News
Ukraine Takes “Bold Steps” to Export Its Grain, as Better Than Expected Harvest Unfolds
Bloomberg writer Olesia Safronova reported today that, “As Ukraine’s farmers labor through their second wartime harvest, they’re expecting a big one. They just don’t know how much of it will ever make it to market.”
Ship Departs Ukrainian Port With Wheat, “Further Testing” Black Sea Blockade; U.S. Soybean Ratings Lowest “At This Time of Year Since 2013”
New York Times writer Matthew Mpoke Bigg reported today that, “A commercial ship loaded with wheat left a Ukrainian port on Tuesday, becoming the first vessel with cargo to use a new Black Sea route out of the country aimed at avoiding Russian naval threats.”
Ukraine Set to Bring Unilateral Grain Bans to WTO; While WSJ Explores U.S. Soy Seed Market
Reuters writer Tom Balmforth and Pavel Polityuk reported today that, “Ukraine plans to sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over bans on Ukrainian agricultural products, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky said on Monday.”
Two Grain Ships Arrive in Black Sea Port Using “Humanitarian Corridor”
Reuters writers Pavel Polityuk, Olena Harmash and Michelle Nichols reported on Saturday that, “Two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, Ukrainian port authorities said, the first ships to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets.”
EU Lifts Ban on Kyiv’s Grain Exports; as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia Introduce Restrictions
Wall Street Journal writers Thomas Grove and Laurence Norman reported in Saturday’s paper that, “Russia’s blockage of Ukrainian food exports has become a painful political issue next door in the European Union, where Brussels decided Friday to end EU restrictions on Ukrainian grain purchases but the bloc’s eastern flank immediately rejected the decision.”
ERS: U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Exports, “Lowest Since Records Started in 1973/74”
U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports are forecast down 10 million bushels this month to 155 million bushels, the lowest since records started in 1973/74.”
USA Today: “Trouble on the River,” Mississippi Water Levels a Concern Again This Fall
Chris Kenning reported on the front page of today’s USA Today that, “In the wheelhouse high atop the rumbling, 240-foot boat, James Garner perched in a chair surrounded by levers, dials and screens. Below him, the Dredge Potter inched up a remote stretch of khaki-colored water between Missouri and Illinois.”
Cut in U.S. Soybean Harvest, While Corn Production Increased- Expected to Be “the Second-Largest on Record”
Reuters writer Mark Weinraub reported yesterday that, “The U.S. government cut its forecast for the soybean crop on Tuesday after hot and dry conditions during key growth stages but raised the corn harvest view due to expectations for large acreage harvested despite adverse weather this summer.”
U.S. Corn, Soybean Conditions: “Hovering at Their Lowest Levels in a Decade”
DTN Managing Editor Anthony Greder reported yesterday that, “The 2023 U.S. corn harvest is slightly outpacing the five-year average so far as the crop continues to reach maturity ahead of normal, USDA NASS stated in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday. Soybeans, too, continue to reach maturity ahead of the five-year average.”
FAPRI Baseline Update- U.S. Farm Income and Government Costs in Focus
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its latest baseline update for U.S. farm income and government costs on Monday.
Impact of Summer Heat on U.S. Crops Debated, as Black Sea Export Issues Persist
Dow Jones writer Kirk Maltais reported on Friday that, “The effect of scorching heat on maturing U.S. crops is driving the price debate in grain markets, with trading volume of grain futures muted as observers are split over the extent of crop damage.”
Global Food Prices Decline in August- Lowest in Two Years, But Rice at 15-Year High
Bloomberg writer Agnieszka de Sousa reported today that, “Global food prices resumed declines to the lowest in more than two years amid ample supplies of cooking oils and dairy, even as worries persist over flows of key staples from some regions.”
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- August 2023
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its August 2023 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Black Sea Grain Issues in Focus, While China Soy Imports Climb; U.S. Corn Harvest Starting Sooner Than Normal
Reuters writers Jonathan Saul and Carolyn Cohn reported today that, “Lloyd’s of London is in talks with the United Nations over providing insurance cover for Ukrainian grain shipments if a new Black Sea corridor deal can be reached, its CEO John Neal told Reuters on Thursday.”
U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $172.0 Billion in Fiscal Year 2024
Last week, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS). Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was prepared by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, Dylan Russell, and James Kaufman.
U.S. Corn, Soybeans Good-to-Excellent- “Lowest For This Time of Year Since 2012”
Reuters News reported today that, “Chicago soybean futures rose on Wednesday, recouping the last session’s losses, after a weekly U.S. report showed that crop conditions had deteriorated more than expected due to high temperatures.”
FAPRI Baseline Update- Grain and Soybean Variables in Focus
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets on Tuesday.
Black Sea Grain Deal Renewal Still on Hold After Turkish, Russian Talks
Financial Times writers John Paul Rathbone and Roman Olearchyk reported on Sunday that, “Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine’s southern Odesa port region in the early hours of Sunday, a day before the Turkish and Russian presidents were due to hold talks about restarting the export of grain via the Black Sea.”
2023 Farm Sector Income Forecast, August
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Thursday that, “Farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2023 after reaching record highs in 2022. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $183.0 billion in calendar year 2022, increasing $42.9 billion (30.7 percent) from 2021 in nominal dollars.”