On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its August 2023 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Farm Policy News
Black Sea Grain Issues in Focus, While China Soy Imports Climb; U.S. Corn Harvest Starting Sooner Than Normal
Reuters writers Jonathan Saul and Carolyn Cohn reported today that, “Lloyd’s of London is in talks with the United Nations over providing insurance cover for Ukrainian grain shipments if a new Black Sea corridor deal can be reached, its CEO John Neal told Reuters on Thursday.”
U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $172.0 Billion in Fiscal Year 2024
Last week, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS). Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was prepared by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, Dylan Russell, and James Kaufman.
U.S. Corn, Soybeans Good-to-Excellent- “Lowest For This Time of Year Since 2012”
Reuters News reported today that, “Chicago soybean futures rose on Wednesday, recouping the last session’s losses, after a weekly U.S. report showed that crop conditions had deteriorated more than expected due to high temperatures.”
FAPRI Baseline Update- Grain and Soybean Variables in Focus
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets on Tuesday.
Black Sea Grain Deal Renewal Still on Hold After Turkish, Russian Talks
Financial Times writers John Paul Rathbone and Roman Olearchyk reported on Sunday that, “Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine’s southern Odesa port region in the early hours of Sunday, a day before the Turkish and Russian presidents were due to hold talks about restarting the export of grain via the Black Sea.”
2023 Farm Sector Income Forecast, August
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Thursday that, “Farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2023 after reaching record highs in 2022. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, reached $183.0 billion in calendar year 2022, increasing $42.9 billion (30.7 percent) from 2021 in nominal dollars.”
Mississippi River Barge Freight Rates Climb on Lower Water Levels
Bloomberg writer Tarso Veloso Ribeiro reported yesterday that, “The cost to transport America’s harvest from the Midwest to the rest of the world is soaring as shrinking water levels on the Mississippi River drive up barge freight rates — and the forecast for below-than-average rainfall offers no relief.”
Bloomberg: Brazil Top Corn Exporter in 2023, 2024
Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Dominic Carey reported today that, “For more than half a century, US farmers dominated the international market for corn, shipping more of the critical crop than any other country to feed the world’s livestock, fill its stockpiles and manufacture its processed foods.”
EPA Amends “Waters of the U.S.” Rule to Conform With Supreme Court Decision
DTN writer Todd Neeley reported yesterday that, “The EPA removed the term ‘significant nexus’ from the waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule in a final revision announced by the agency Tuesday after the Supreme Court in May declared unconstitutional the jurisdictional test that has been the subject of intense opposition and litigation for nearly a decade.”
U.S. Corn, Soybean Conditions Slightly Lower; El Niño Weather Variables, and Danube River Transport in Focus
Reuters writer Julie Ingwersen reported yesterday that, “Weekly condition ratings for the U.S. soybean and corn crops declined in the past week after a spell of sweltering heat in the Midwest, government data showed on Monday, but not by as much as most analysts expected.”
Second Ship Sails From Odesa Through Black Sea “Humanitarian Corridor,” While China Economic News in Focus
Reuters writer Dan Peleschuk reported yesterday that, “A vessel carrying steel products to Africa has left Ukraine’s Odesa port through a temporary Black Sea corridor, the second ship to do so since Russia withdrew last month from a U.N.-brokered deal that allowed for grain to be safely exported, a senior Ukrainian government official said on Sunday.”
Despite Russian Attacks on Danube, Romania Seeks to Double Alternative Shipping Capacity, as “Russia Squeezes Ukraine’s Ability to Export” Grain
Alistair MacDonald and Oksana Pyrozhok reported on Saturday at The Wall Street Journal Online that, “As Russia squeezes Ukraine’s ability to export its huge grain harvests, it is farmers like Valery Kolosha who are counting the cost.”
Logistical Breakthroughs Boost Brazil Corn Export Competitiveness, While China GMO Trials Show “Outstanding” Results
Reuters writer Ana Mano reported yesterday that, “Brazil is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the world’s top corn exporter, reflecting both a bumper harvest and logistical breakthroughs such as the consolidation of northern export routes, which are boosting the competitiveness of the South American grains powerhouse.”
Russian Drones Again Target Port Infrastructure in Danube River Area, as China Soybean Demand in Focus
Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported today that, “Russia targeted Ukrainian ports in the southern Odesa region and the Danube River area in overnight drone attacks, setting at least one grain storage facility on fire, Ukraine’s military and local authorities said on Wednesday.”
U.S. Corn Ratings Decline, Soybeans Steady, While Spring Wheat Conditions Drop
Reuters writer Mark Weinraub reported yesterday that, “The condition of the U.S. spring wheat crop dropped in the latest week, the government said on Monday, as forecasts for hot and dry weather continued in the northern Plains this week.”
Kyiv Finalizing Deal With Insurers to Cover Black Sea Grain Ships, While Additional Heavy Rain Expected in China
Over the weekend, Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn and Olesia Safronova reported that, “The Kremlin’s efforts to paralyze Ukrainian food shipments are succeeding, with a third of the country’s crop exports wiped out since its Black Sea ports were effectively blocked last month.”
Kansas City Fed: Farmland Values Remain Strong, as Interest Rates Climb and Farm Income Tempers
In a recent update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Farmland Values Stay Resilient as Farm Economy Moderates”), Francisco Scott and Ty Kreitman indicated that, “Strength in farm real estate values persisted in the second quarter despite some moderation in the farm economy and higher interest rates.”
U.S. Establishes USMCA Panel Regarding Mexico’s GMO Corn Import Restrictions, While Global Grain Production Forecast as Second Largest on Record
Reuters writer David Lawder reported yesterday that, “The United States on Thursday escalated its objections to Mexico’s curbs on genetically modified corn imports, requesting a dispute settlement panel under the North American trade pact, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said.”
ERS: “Recent Trends in the Cage-Free Egg Layer Inventory”
In its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report yesterday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated that, “According to the USDA, Monthly Cage-Free Shell Egg Report, the cage-free table egg layer flock (nonorganic and certified organic) added more than 10.5 million layers in the first 6 months of this year.”