In its April Market Monitor report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) indicated that, “Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine.”
Farm Policy News
“Big Shift in American Farm Policy” – Farming as a Low-Carbon Energy Producer
Keith Schneider reported in today’s New York Times that, “Despite federal and state programs to convert corn into ethanol and soybeans into biodiesel to fuel cars and trucks, the United States has never before regarded farming as a primary energy producer.”
“Farming Marshall Plan” Needed For Ukraine, as Wheat Variables Garner Attention
Wall Street Journal writers Patrick Thomas and Alistair MacDonald reported today that, “Foreign countries and some of the world’s largest agriculture companies are donating or lending hundreds of millions of dollars to Ukrainian farmers, marking an early push by Kyiv’s allies to rebuild the country even as the war shows little sign of ending soon.”
Some Eastern European Countries Worry About Local Grain Glut From Ukrainian Imports
Late last week, Bloomberg writers Piotr Skolimowski, Irina Vilcu and Megan Durisin reported that, “Blocked border crossings, a minister pelted with eggs and overflowing silos — anger is mounting among farmers in eastern Europe who say a rush of grain from Ukraine threatens their businesses, and it’s steadily eroding political goodwill.”
ERS: “China’s Agricultural Imports Appear to Remain Short of Their Full Potential”
In an Amber Waves article last week from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), Stephen Morgan, Fred Gale, Jayson Beckman, Ethan Sabala, Danielle J. Ufer, Adriana Valcu-Lisman, and Wendy Zeng indicated that, “China imported more than $205 billion of agricultural products in 2021, including more than $37 billion from the United States.”
Quick Take: Farmland Values “Could Level Off”
Daniel Grant reported recently at FarmWeekNow.com that, “The meteoric rise of farmland values in 2021-22 could level off this year.”
DTN: Fertilizer Prices Continue on a “Steady March Lower Since the Beginning of the Year”
DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “All retail fertilizer prices continued to decline in the third full week of March 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Prices have been on a steady march lower since the beginning of the year.”
Western Grain Traders Pull Back in Russia, but “What Changes? Not Much.”
Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn, Megan Durisin and Agnieszka de Sousa reported today that, “In the span of just two days, the future of Western grain traders in Russia has been quickly rewritten.”
FAPRI Baseline Update- Corn, Soybean Variables in Focus
The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets yesterday.
Russia: Cargill Will Stop Exporting Its Grain, While Biden Aide Has Call With China’s Top Diplomat
Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn and Anuradha Raghu reported today that, “Russia said top agricultural commodities trader Cargill Inc. will stop exporting its grain, the strongest move yet by a major Western crop merchant to pull back from the country.”
“Weaker” Economic Rebound in China, as Brazil Looks to China for Farm Infrastructure Investment, U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions Updated
Financial Times writer Joe Leahy reported earlier this week that, “China’s economic rebound is weaker than expected as consumers emerge ‘stunned’ from pandemic-led disruptions and a real estate meltdown last year, according to the head of AP Møller-Maersk.”
December Corn and November Soybean Futures Ratio Favoring Corn Plantings
Bloomberg writer Sophie Caronello reported yesterday that, “Traders have been betting on corn ahead of the US Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report due on Friday.”
Tariff Reducing Negotiations Absent, Biden Administration Looks at Supply Chain Initiatives Instead of Free-Trade Talks
Late last week, DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton reported that, “More than two years into the Biden administration, the country’s top trade negotiators have no negotiations going on with any country to reduce tariffs for U.S. products.”
“A Flurry of Chinese Purchases of U.S. Corn,” as Brazil Seeks Further Ag Trade Opening with China
Reuters writer Mark Weinraub reported on Friday that, “Falling prices have sparked a flurry of Chinese purchases of U.S. corn, as the world’s top buyer of the grain scrambles to make up for a slow start to its import program, traders and analysts said.”
Lower Fertilizer Prices Persist
DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the second full week of March 2023 continue to show lower levels. This trend has been in place for two and a half months.”
Spring Planting Underway in Ukraine, as Soybean Prices Lower (Again)
Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported today that, “Most Ukrainian regions have started 2023 spring sowing, seeding a total of 293,000 hectares of various crops, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.”
Ukraine Grain Output Could Fall by a Fifth Compared to Last Year
Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin, Kateryna Choursina and Aine Quinn reported yesterday that, “Oleksandr Klepach’s fields in southern Ukraine would normally be teeming with shoots of wheat and rapeseed in spring. This March, they’re infested with weeds instead.”
ERS: “U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets,” Focus on Corn, Soybeans and Wheat
In a report yesterday from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), “U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets,” Samantha Padilla, Danielle J. Ufer, Stephen Morgan, and Noah Link stated that, “Export shares and exports-to-production ratios indicate the United States continues to be the top exporter of corn, tree nuts, and cotton, while other competitors have penetrated the global wheat and soybean markets.”
Ukraine Anticipates Lower 2023 Grain Harvest, Kansas Wheat Conditions Improve
Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported yesterday that, “Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million in 2022 as less acreage is sown due to the Russian invasion, a forecast by the Ukrainian agriculture ministry showed on Monday.”
Following Black Sea Grain Deal Extension, Wheat Falls, as WSJ Highlights Soybean Oil Variables
Bloomberg writer Keira Wright reported today that, “Wheat dropped following the renewal of an agreement that allows Ukraine to safely export grains out of key Black Sea ports, although the duration of the latest extension was disputed.”