DTN writer Russ Quinn reported on Friday that, “As if the 2019 growing season didn’t have enough weather challenges, corn harvest has come to a complete halt for some farmers as propane for crop drying has been hard to secure. Increased demand nationwide due to extremely cold weather is limiting supplies available for drying crops.”
Farm Policy News
As Phase One Talks Continue, China Purchases Some U.S. Farm Products, While USDA Announced a Second Tranche of MFP Payments
Last week, Financial Times writer James Politi reported that, “President Donald Trump threatened a new escalation of the trade war with China, saying US tariffs on Chinese goods would be ‘raised very substantially’ if no truce was reached with officials in Beijing.”
Federal Reserve Ag Credit Surveys- 2019 Third Quarter Farm Economy Conditions
Last week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City and Minneapolis released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the third quarter of 2019. And earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Agricultural Survey for the third quarter of 2019. Today’s update highlights core findings from the Fed reports.
Wet Spring and Fall Complicating 2019 Harvest, and Could Impact 2020 Planting- Compounding Difficulties
Grace Zaplatynsky reported on Friday at the Globe Gazette (Mason City, Iowa) Online that, “This year has not been the greatest year for farmers with the soaked spring and now the cold and early snow in fall.”
Roll Back of Tariffs Stymie Phase One Trade Talks with China
Josh Zumbrun, William Mauldin and Chao Deng reported on the front page of Friday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Beijing’s announcement Thursday that the U.S. and China have mutually agreed to roll back tariffs as part of a ‘phase one’ trade accord lifted financial markets, but questions remained over how much ground—if any —the Trump administration had agreed to give.”
China “Scouring the World for Meat” as African Swine Fever Impacts Protein Markets
Bloomberg News reported last week that, “Tang Jie, who works on a pig farm, says he used to get pork from the wet market near his home every day. But he hasn’t bought any in two months. And his favorite dish, stewed pork ribs with lotus root, has been cut from the menu at his local restaurant.”
Corn, Soybean Harvest Slowest Since 2009- Capping Off Difficult Growing Year, Propane Supply a Concern
Late last month, Des Moines Register writer Donnelle Eller reported that, “Rain has slowed the harvest across the state in recent days. National Weather Service data for Des Moines showed that central Iowa on [October 23rd] matched the October rainfall record of 7.29 inches, set in 1941. Any more rain in the remaining eight days of the month would set a new record — a landmark in a year that already is one of the wettest in recorded Iowa history.”
USDA Baseline Background, Outlook, and Recent Projections
Last week, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released a report discussing the USDA’s baseline, while the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released selected tables from the Department’s Agricultural Projections to 2029. Today’s update highlights aspects from both the ERS report, and the OCE projections that focused on soybeans and corn.
China’s Ag Import Capacity Considered as Phase One Trade Talks Continue
Reuters writers Heather Timmons and Hallie Gu reported last week that, “U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Beijing commit to big purchases of American farm products has become a major sticking point in talks to end the Sino-U.S. trade war, according to several people briefed on the negotiations.”
Small-Refinery Exemptions Discussed at House Committee Hearing
Reuters writer Richard Valdmanis reported this week that, “The U.S. oil and corn industries continued a long-running public battle over America’s biofuels policy on Tuesday during a Congressional hearing about the Trump administration’s use of ‘secret waivers’ for refineries.
EPA Biofuels Blending Plan Disconnect- Additional Background on SREs
Last week, Bloomberg writer Jennifer A Dlouhy reported that, “Administration officials warned that an EPA plan for boosting biofuel-blending requirements violated the spirit of a deal brokered by President Donald Trump. The White House blessed it anyway.”
U.S., China Phase One Trade Deal Progresses, as China Purchases Some U.S. Soybeans
Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Tatiana Freitas reported last week that, “China is clearing the way for more purchases of American soybeans in an apparent boon for U.S. farmers. There’s just one thing getting in the way — cheap Brazilian supplies.”
Kansas City Fed: Farm Lending Growth Slows, But Weakness in the Sector Persists
In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Farm Lending Slows but Remains High”) Cortney Cowley and Ty Kreitman stated that, “Growth in farm lending activity slowed in the third quarter of 2019;” but, “Despite a slowdown in the pace of debt accumulation, weaknesses in the sector persisted, continuing to pressure farm cash flows and agricultural credit conditions.”
Progress on Phase One Trade Deal with China, Chinese Soy Processors Granted Additional Tariff Waivers
Reuters writer Dominique Patton reported last week that, “China is still a long way from forking out $50 billion for farm goods from the United States, agriculture industry analysts said on [Oct. 14th], cautioning that getting there is contingent on removing substantial technical and political hurdles.”
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- October 2019
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its October 2019 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Farmers and Lawmakers Dismayed Over Details in Proposed EPA Ethanol Formula
Reuters writer Stephanie Kelly reported yesterday that, “The Trump administration, in an effort to mend fences with the powerful corn lobby, proposed a new formula on Tuesday to boost biofuels demand, but the proposal instead only provoked more consternation from the industry.”
Freezing Temperatures and Snow Bring Harvest Challenges
Late last week, Bloomberg writers Brian K Sullivan and Ashley Robinson reported that, “A large snowfall is set to sweep out of the Rocky Mountains later this week, bringing snow by the foot across the Dakotas, slowing wheat harvests and ending any chance for still-maturing corn crops to flourish.”
U.S., China Take Initial Step on Trade Deal; China Agrees to Buy $40-$50 Billion in U.S. Farm Goods Amid Rough Details
William Mauldin, Chao Deng and Vivian Salama reported in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal that, “The U.S. and China took an initial step to cement a trade agreement that had been derailed, with Washington saying on Friday it would shelve a planned increase in tariffs on goods imported from China, while Beijing would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products.”
China Offers Agricultural Purchases as Trade Talks Set to Resume
Tom Mitchell reported on Wednesday at The Financial Times Online that, “Chinese officials are offering to increase purchases of US agricultural products as they seek an interim agreement between Beijing and Washington that will stave off a new round of tariff hikes on October 15, according to people briefed on the two countries’ ongoing negotiations.”
Chinese Purchases of U.S. Soybeans Continue, as Range of Topics in Trade Talks Narrows
Bloomberg News reported last week that, “Chinese companies bought U.S. soybeans after the Xi Jinping administration issued more waivers from its retaliatory import tariffs, according to people familiar with the situation.”