U.S., China Trade Talks Persist, While Flooding Compounds Stress on the Ag Economy

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to travel to China next week to start a new round of face-to-face trade talks.  As the negotiations continue, many Corn Belt producers face substantial financial losses due to flooding in the Midwest.  The ongoing trade uncertainty and flooding come at time when the agricultural economy is struggling to rebound from its peak in 2013.

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028- Focus on Corn, Soybeans

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its 10-year projections for the food and agricultural sector.  The report noted that, “Over the next several years, the agricultural sector will continue to adjust to the ongoing China-U.S. trade dispute (which is assumed to last the duration of the projection period). This results in an expected shift away from soybean production in the U.S. due to lower prices and towards corn and wheat which are expected to generate relatively higher returns.”  Today’s update highlights aspects of the report that focused on corn and soybeans. 

U.S., China Trade Deal Cannot Be Taken for Granted

In testimony last week before the Senate Finance Committee, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer displayed a more cautious tone in describing U.S., China trade negotiations.  Meanwhile, recent news items provided perspective on variables impacting the trade flows of soybeans and pork to China.

Trump Budget Seeks Subsidy Cuts to Farmers

The executive branch released its Federal budget proposal this week.  Like previous Trump administration budget outlines in 2017, and last year, Monday’s framework sought cuts to U.S. Department of Agriculture programs.  Today’s update highlights recent news reports that discuss some of the specific items contained in the President’s Fiscal Year 2020 budget request.

2019 Farm Sector Income Forecast, March

The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Wednesday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase $6.3 billion (10.0 percent) from 2018 to $69.4 billion in 2019, after decreasing $12.0 billion (16.0 percent) in 2018. Net cash farm income is forecast to increase $4.3 billion (4.7 percent) to $95.7 billion.”

Senate Ag Committee Hearing with Secretary Perdue

Following Wednesday’s appearance before the House Agriculture Committee, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue testified on Thursday before the Senate Agriculture Committee at a hearing titled, “Implementing the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018.”  A variety of topics were discussed at the meeting, today’s update highlights some of these issues including: Trade, and Farm Bill payment limits.

At House Ag Committee, Secretary Perdue Addresses the State of the Rural Economy

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue testified on Wednesday before the House Agriculture Committee at a hearing titled, “The State of the Rural Economy.”  Lawmakers explored a variety of issues in their discussion with Secretary Perdue, including the condition of the agricultural economy, trade, and African swine fever.  Today’s update provides some highlights from the Ag Committee meeting with Secretary Perdue.

China Commits to Buy Additional U.S. Soybeans, March 1st Tariff Increases Delayed

U.S., China trade talks resumed last week in Washington, D.C., and extended into the weekend.  As the negotiations unfolded, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue indicated that China committed to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.  And citing progress made in the talks, President Trump tweeted Sunday that, “I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1.”   News items tracking these developments are highlighted in today’s update.

U.S., China Trade Talks in Washington this Week

After continuing last week in Beijing, U.S., China trade talks will resume again this week in Washington, D.C.  In addition, recent news items continue to highlight impacts of the ongoing trade dispute on the farm economy.  Today’s update focuses on these two issues in more detail.

Farm Income, and Global Commodity Trade- USDA Projections to 2028

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the complete set of tables prepared for the upcoming USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028 report, which is scheduled to be released on March 13th.  Recall that in November, the Department released tables containing long-term supply, use, and price projections to 2028 for major U.S. crops.  The new tables included projections for farm income and global commodity trade, which are highlighted below.

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