Trade

Alfred Cang reported this week at Bloomberg that, “China’s record corn-buying spree — a cornerstone of its trade deal with the U.S. — may be running out of steam, with risks growing that imports by the top buyer will fall short of U.S. official estimates.” 

A report on Thursday from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing (“Livestock and Products Annual”) stated that, “In 2022, hog production will decline by 5 percent due to low inventories and a smaller sow herd, which resulted from significant slaughter and delayed restocking in 2021.”

On Thursday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, and Dylan Russell.

Reuters News reported last week that, “China’s soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed on Friday, as poor crush margins weighed on demand.”

Earlier this week, Reuters writers Min Zhang, Shivani Singh and Dominique Patton reported that, “China’s sow herd declined for the first time in nearly two years, contracting 0.5% in July from the previous month, state media said, after a plunge in hog prices pushed many farmers to get rid of unproductive sows.”

Late last week, Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin, Kim Chipman, and Khadija Kothia reported that, “Crop losses in two of the world’s biggest wheat exporters and quality concerns in a third have pushed prices to multiyear highs, adding to worries about food price inflation for millions of the world’s most vulnerable.”

Reuters writer Emily Chow reported this week that, “[Chinese producer Cheng’s] farm is one of thousands in Henan, famous for agriculture, and pork production in particular. The province was struck by heavy rains last week that sparked the worst flash flooding in centuries, catching many by surprise.”

Late last week, Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Gavin Maguire reported that, “China’s soybean imports are set to slow sharply in late 2021 from a record first-half tally, confounding expectations for sustained growth from the top global buyer and denting market sentiment just as U.S. farmers look to sell their new crop.”

A report last week from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “Banner Year for U.S. Beef Exports in 2021,” stated that, “As countries roll back COVID-19 restrictions, foreign market demand for beef is becoming a bright spot for U.S. producers.”

Reuters News reported late last week that, “The first cases of African swine fever have been confirmed in farm pigs in Germany, the country’s federal agriculture ministry said on Friday.”

Earlier this week, in its monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “Brazil corn imports (Oct-Sep) are forecast at 2.6 million tons for 2020/21. If realized, it would be the largest volume on record.”

Bloomberg News reported on Friday that, “China is likely to take a break from buying large amounts of U.S. corn after record purchases this year because the domestic harvest is approaching and local prices have slumped to the cheapest since late 2020.”

Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Gavin Maguire reported this week that, “Chinese farmers have sharply increased corn planting this year to cash in on demand-fuelled record prices, a trend that is likely to cool the country’s recent rampant appetite for imports heading into 2022.”

A report on Thursday from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing (“China: Grain and Feed Update”) stated that, “Post’s MY2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 MMT, 6 MMTs below USDA’s official forecast with the expectation that demand softens as corn imported during the current marketing year enters commercial channels, stock building moderates, and the expansion of domestic corn area results in greater production.”

Late last week, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released a report titled, “Early Months Suggest a Bright 2021 for United States Agricultural Exports.”

Late last week, Wall Street Journal writer Jacky Wong reported that, “Prices of everything seem to be going up this year. Pork prices in China are doing the opposite as a different sort of health crisis eases. That’s tough news for the global pork industry, but a welcome respite for pork buyers everywhere.”

Bloomberg News reported this week that, “China’s hog population rose 24% in the year through May and has now almost fully recovered from the recent resurgence in African swine fever, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.”

Late last week, Reuters writer Karl Plume reported that, “Chinese state-owned importers bought at least eight cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 480,000 tonnes, the country’s largest U.S. soybean purchases in 4-1/2 months, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said.”

Financial Times writers Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale reported this week that, “Hog futures in China have fallen to record lows as mass slaughtering of pigs prompts fears that the world’s second-biggest economy faces a deluge of pork.”

Bloomberg News reported on Friday that, “China’s embarked on a record corn-buying spree this year and some vessels have been delayed for as long as a month outside southern ports because of congestion, incurring hefty demurrage fees.”