Trade

Earlier this week, the USDA’s Economic Research Service noted in its monthly Oil Crops Outlook report that, “Hurricane Ida’s emergence in the Gulf of Mexico slowed the pace of exports near the end of August which is expected to continue into early September.”

Reuters writer Karl Plume reported this week that, “U.S. grain exports slumped to their lowest level in years last week as shippers struggled to restart loading operations along the Louisiana Gulf Coast after Hurricane Ida flooded and damaged grain terminals and knocked out power across the region, preliminary data showed on Monday.”

In its monthly World Agricultural Production report on Friday, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, “USDA estimates China marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn production at a record 273.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 5.0 mmt or 2 percent from last month, up 5 percent from last year, and 5 percent above the 5-year average of 260.3 mmt.”

Last week, a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing (“China: Oilseeds and Products Update“) stated that, “Soybean imports are forecast at 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22, up 3 MMT from the previous year.”

Recent news articles have highlighted independent developments that are impacting agricultural export markets.

Reuters writers Karl Plume and PJ Huffstutter reported this week that, “Grain shippers on the U.S. Gulf Coast reported more damage from Hurricane Ida to their terminals on Wednesday as Cargill Inc confirmed damage to a second facility, while power outages across southern Louisiana kept all others shuttered.”

Alfred Cang reported this week at Bloomberg that, “China’s record corn-buying spree — a cornerstone of its trade deal with the U.S. — may be running out of steam, with risks growing that imports by the top buyer will fall short of U.S. official estimates.” 

A report on Thursday from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing (“Livestock and Products Annual”) stated that, “In 2022, hog production will decline by 5 percent due to low inventories and a smaller sow herd, which resulted from significant slaughter and delayed restocking in 2021.”

On Thursday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, and Dylan Russell.

Reuters News reported last week that, “China’s soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed on Friday, as poor crush margins weighed on demand.”

Earlier this week, Reuters writers Min Zhang, Shivani Singh and Dominique Patton reported that, “China’s sow herd declined for the first time in nearly two years, contracting 0.5% in July from the previous month, state media said, after a plunge in hog prices pushed many farmers to get rid of unproductive sows.”

Late last week, Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin, Kim Chipman, and Khadija Kothia reported that, “Crop losses in two of the world’s biggest wheat exporters and quality concerns in a third have pushed prices to multiyear highs, adding to worries about food price inflation for millions of the world’s most vulnerable.”

Reuters writer Emily Chow reported this week that, “[Chinese producer Cheng’s] farm is one of thousands in Henan, famous for agriculture, and pork production in particular. The province was struck by heavy rains last week that sparked the worst flash flooding in centuries, catching many by surprise.”

Late last week, Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Gavin Maguire reported that, “China’s soybean imports are set to slow sharply in late 2021 from a record first-half tally, confounding expectations for sustained growth from the top global buyer and denting market sentiment just as U.S. farmers look to sell their new crop.”

A report last week from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “Banner Year for U.S. Beef Exports in 2021,” stated that, “As countries roll back COVID-19 restrictions, foreign market demand for beef is becoming a bright spot for U.S. producers.”

Reuters News reported late last week that, “The first cases of African swine fever have been confirmed in farm pigs in Germany, the country’s federal agriculture ministry said on Friday.”

Earlier this week, in its monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “Brazil corn imports (Oct-Sep) are forecast at 2.6 million tons for 2020/21. If realized, it would be the largest volume on record.”

Bloomberg News reported on Friday that, “China is likely to take a break from buying large amounts of U.S. corn after record purchases this year because the domestic harvest is approaching and local prices have slumped to the cheapest since late 2020.”

Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Gavin Maguire reported this week that, “Chinese farmers have sharply increased corn planting this year to cash in on demand-fuelled record prices, a trend that is likely to cool the country’s recent rampant appetite for imports heading into 2022.”

A report on Thursday from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Beijing (“China: Grain and Feed Update”) stated that, “Post’s MY2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 MMT, 6 MMTs below USDA’s official forecast with the expectation that demand softens as corn imported during the current marketing year enters commercial channels, stock building moderates, and the expansion of domestic corn area results in greater production.”