On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its January 2019 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
Keith Good
Keith Good is the Farm Policy News editor for the farmdoc project. He has previously worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, and compiled the daily FarmPolicy.com News Summary from 2003-2015. He is a graduate of Purdue University (M.S.- Agricultural Economics), and Southern Illinois University School of Law.
As China Trade Conflict Persists, President Trump Addresses Farm Bureau Members
As he did last January in Nashville, President Donald Trump addressed the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Annual Convention in New Orleans on Monday. Today’s update highlights news reports surrounding the President’s appearance at the convention.
Shutdown Impacting USDA Data and Programs- Market Signals Missing
The partial Federal government shutdown continues. Today’s update points to news items that catalogue some of the impacts of the ongoing budget impasse on USDA data and agricultural markets, as well as disruptions in other USDA administered programs.
China Purchases U.S. Soybeans, and U.S.-China Trade Talks Conclude
As trade talks between the U.S. and China kicked off this week in Beijing, news reports pointed out that China “made their third large U.S. soybean purchase in the past month on Monday.” The trade talks went a day longer than scheduled, and concluded with a statement that noted: “The talks also focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products and services from the United States.” Meanwhile, a Financial Times article explored how the ongoing U.S.-China trade row is negatively impacting the U.S. farm sector.
USDA Report- Agricultural Conservation on Working Lands: Trends From 2004 to Present
The USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) recently released a report title, “Agricultural Conservation on Working Lands: Trends From 2004 to Present.” A fact sheet that accompanied the report explained that, “The first step toward increasing adoption of conservation practices is to establish a baseline of current adoption rates;” and added that the report, “uses survey data to track U.S. adoption of selected agricultural conservation practices that both reduce GHG [green house gas] emissions and provide additional environmental benefits.” Today’s update includes brief excerpts and highlights from both the report and fact sheet.
Soybean Prices Climb as U.S.-China Trade Developments Unfold
A U.S. government delegation will travel to Beijing this week to discuss the ongoing trade war between the two countries. A recent news article noted that optimism associated with the talks has been a contributing variable in a climb in the price of soybean futures.
Ag Economy: Recent Updates from the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Minneapolis
An update this week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as a short paper last month from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, provide insight into portions of the U.S. agricultural economy.
New Waters of the U.S. Rule From EPA
Last month, on the same day that the Senate passed the Farm Bill Conference Report, and a day before the House took similar action, the Trump Administration released a new proposed waters of the United States, or WOTUS, rule. Today’s update highlights news items that focused on the new proposal.
Government Shutdown: Impact on Soybean Exports and Trade Mitigation Payments
On the night of Friday, December 21st, the U.S. government began a partial government shutdown. Today’s update points to recent news items that highlight how the shutdown may impact information related to U.S. soybean exports, as well as USDA trade mitigation program payments.
Farm Bill Signed, SNAP Proposal Released, and Trade Aid Payments Approved
President Trump signed the Farm Bill into law on Thursday, the same day the executive branch proposed a rule that could impact participation in the SNAP (food stamp) program. And earlier this week, USDA announced that a second installment of payments would be made to some producers negatively impacted by ongoing trade disputes.
Iowa Farmland Values Decrease Slightly Since 2017
A news release Wednesday from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University and Iowa State University Extension and Outreach indicated that, “After a reprieve in 2017, commodity prices, interest rates, and trade disruptions drove Iowa farmland values down for the fourth time in five years. The average statewide value of an acre of farmland is now estimated to be $7,264. This represents a decrease of 0.8 percent, or $62 per acre, from the 2017 estimate.”
Overview: China Purchases U.S. Soybeans
Reuters writer Karl Plume reported last week that, “China on Wednesday made its first major purchases of U.S. soybeans since President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping struck a trade war truce earlier this month, providing some relief to U.S. farmers who have struggled to find buyers for their record-large harvest.”
House Passes Farm Bill, 369-47
Following quick Senate action on Tuesday, and after surviving a close procedural vote on the Rules for debate, the House of Representatives passed the Farm Bill conference report on Wednesday by a vote of 369 to 47. The measure now heads to President Trump for his signature.
Senate Passes Farm Bill Conference Report, 87-13
A news release on Monday from the House Agriculture Committee stated that, “House and Senate Agriculture Committee Chairmen Mike Conaway (R-Texas) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) and Ranking Members Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) today released the text of the bipartisan, bicameral 2018 Farm Bill conference report.” On Tuesday evening, the Senate passed the measure by a vote of 87-13.
U.S. Agricultural Export Data for the First Ten Months of 2018
Last week, USDA released U.S. agricultural export data that spanned the first ten months of 2018. Although the overall value of exports was higher for this time period compared to 2017, there were reductions in both the value and volume of soybean exports, particularly to China. Business news articles also point to continued adjustments in global commodity markets due to the ongoing U.S., China trade war. Meanwhile, recent news items continue to provide more clarity to U.S., China trade activity stemming from last week’s meeting in Buenos Aires.
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- November 2018
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its December 2018 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
2018 Farm Sector Income Forecast, November
The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Friday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.1 billion (12.1 percent) from 2017 to $66.3 billion in 2018, after increasing $13.8 billion (22.5 percent) in 2017. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $8.5 billion (8.4 percent) to $93.4 billion.”
Weekend in Buenos Aires: USMCA Signed, and China Has Agreed to Start Purchasing Ag Products
This weekend in Buenos Aires, President Trump took important trade policy action that could impact U.S. agricultural markets. After signing the USMCA, the president indicated that he would quickly withdraw from NAFTA, in an effort to pressure the legislative branch into action on the updated trade measure. Meanwhile, a White House statement at the conclusion of the president’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping Saturday night, indicated that, “China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.”
USDA Lowers Agricultural Export Forecast and Trade Aid Payments Begin, as Markets Continue to Adjust
In its latest quarterly forecast for U.S. agricultural trade on Thursday, USDA reduced its fiscal year (October/September) 2019 export projections, “largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton.” And news articles this week provided additional insight into the market ramifications of the ongoing trade war with China, while trade aid payments from USDA have begun […]
Farm Bill Moving Forward
McClatchy writer Bryan Lowry reported Wednesday that, “Pat Roberts isn’t ready to celebrate a deal on the farm bill, but he’s getting closer.
Roberts, the Kansas Republican who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, said that he and the other three principal negotiators on the legislation have reached a tentative agreement on the bill and are now waiting on analysis from the Congressional Budget Office for a final bill.”