Agricultural Economy

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the last week of February 2023 continue to move lower. This trend has been in place for a couple months.”

In an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Growth in Farmland Values Slows Amid Higher Interest Rates,” Cortney Cowley and Ty Kreitman indicated that, “Farm real estate values increased considerably in 2022 but showed signs of softening during the final months of 2022 as interest rates rose sharply.”

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its February 2023 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.”

In its monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report yesterday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, “For the third straight month, 2022/23 Argentina soybean production is lowered as hot and dry weather continues to strain the crop in key growing regions.”

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Retail fertilizer prices continue their march lower, according to prices tracked by DTN for the third full week of February 2023.”

Bloomberg writer Agnieszka de Sousa reported today that, “Global food costs edged down again, extending their retreat to the lowest in 17 months, although consumers continue to feel the pinch at grocery stores.”

Reuters writer Julie Ingwersen reported yesterday that, “Crop insurance policies that guarantee prices for the 2023 growing season are the highest since 2011 for corn and the second-highest on record for soybeans after last year’s peak, reflecting tight global grain supplies, analysts said.”

Bloomberg writer Tatiana Freitas reported yesterday that, “Wheat futures declined to the lowest in 17 months amid ample near-term supplies.”

Bloomberg writers Kim Chipman and Elizabeth Elkin reported on Friday that, “Corn farmers stung by soaring fertilizer costs in the aftermath of Ukraine’s invasion are poised for further relief as wholesale prices tumble to the lowest in almost two years.”

Speaking on Thursday at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer provided a broad outlook for U.S. agriculture. Today’s update provides an overview of key aspects of Dr. Meyer’s presentation.

Last week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Minneapolis released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions.  Today’s update contains highlights from the Fed reports.

Logan Garcia, Market Reporter — at Fertecon, S and P Global Commodity Insights, reported last week at DTN that, “January began a reset across the nitrogen complex with anhydrous ammonia, urea and UAN fertilizer prices falling sharply to open 2023, a fall attributed mostly to a lack of demand across all products as well as further reductions in European natural gas prices last month.”

On Friday, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its annual Farms and Land in Farms report.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its 10-year projections for the food and agricultural sector.

Wall Street Journal writer Gwynn Guilford reported on the front page of today’s Wall Street Journal that, “Still-elevated inflation cooled slightly at the start of 2023 to 6.4% in January from a year earlier, with energy, housing, food and other items keeping some pressure on prices.”

DTN writer Russ Quinn reported last week that, “Average retail fertilizer prices moved lower again the last week of January 2023, continuing a trend that has been present since just before the beginning of the year, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.”

On Thursday, in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s quarterly AgLetter, David Oppedahl explained that, “In 2022, the District saw a strong annual increase of 12 percent in its farmland values.”

The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Tuesday that, “Farm sector income is forecast to fall in 2023 following two years of strong growth.”

Reuters writer Crispian Balmer reported today that, “World food prices fell in January for a 10th consecutive month, and are now down some 18% from a record high hit last March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations food agency said on Friday.”

In its February Market Monitor report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) indicated that, “Fertilizer prices have declined by more than 40 percent since hitting record (nominal) highs last spring, especially due to recent drops in natural gas prices and fertilizer plants reopening in Europe.”