DTN Managing Editor Anthony Greder reported yesterday that, “U.S. winter wheat condition, already the lowest in decades, dropped another point last week, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress Report on Monday.”
Trade
Concerns Over Black Sea Grain Deal
Late last week, Reuters writers Huseyin Hayatsever and Guy Faulconbridge reported that, “Russia on Friday threatened to bypass the UN-brokered grain deal unless obstacles to its agricultural exports were removed, while talks in Turkey agreed removing barriers was a necessary condition to extending the agreement beyond next month.”
After “Price Shocks,” Grain Prices Fall Back to Pre-War Levels, Food Inflation Concerns Persist
In its April Market Monitor report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) indicated that, “Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine.”
“Farming Marshall Plan” Needed For Ukraine, as Wheat Variables Garner Attention
Wall Street Journal writers Patrick Thomas and Alistair MacDonald reported today that, “Foreign countries and some of the world’s largest agriculture companies are donating or lending hundreds of millions of dollars to Ukrainian farmers, marking an early push by Kyiv’s allies to rebuild the country even as the war shows little sign of ending soon.”
Some Eastern European Countries Worry About Local Grain Glut From Ukrainian Imports
Late last week, Bloomberg writers Piotr Skolimowski, Irina Vilcu and Megan Durisin reported that, “Blocked border crossings, a minister pelted with eggs and overflowing silos — anger is mounting among farmers in eastern Europe who say a rush of grain from Ukraine threatens their businesses, and it’s steadily eroding political goodwill.”
ERS: “China’s Agricultural Imports Appear to Remain Short of Their Full Potential”
In an Amber Waves article last week from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), Stephen Morgan, Fred Gale, Jayson Beckman, Ethan Sabala, Danielle J. Ufer, Adriana Valcu-Lisman, and Wendy Zeng indicated that, “China imported more than $205 billion of agricultural products in 2021, including more than $37 billion from the United States.”
Western Grain Traders Pull Back in Russia, but “What Changes? Not Much.”
Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn, Megan Durisin and Agnieszka de Sousa reported today that, “In the span of just two days, the future of Western grain traders in Russia has been quickly rewritten.”
Russia: Cargill Will Stop Exporting Its Grain, While Biden Aide Has Call With China’s Top Diplomat
Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn and Anuradha Raghu reported today that, “Russia said top agricultural commodities trader Cargill Inc. will stop exporting its grain, the strongest move yet by a major Western crop merchant to pull back from the country.”
Tariff Reducing Negotiations Absent, Biden Administration Looks at Supply Chain Initiatives Instead of Free-Trade Talks
Late last week, DTN Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton reported that, “More than two years into the Biden administration, the country’s top trade negotiators have no negotiations going on with any country to reduce tariffs for U.S. products.”
“A Flurry of Chinese Purchases of U.S. Corn,” as Brazil Seeks Further Ag Trade Opening with China
Reuters writer Mark Weinraub reported on Friday that, “Falling prices have sparked a flurry of Chinese purchases of U.S. corn, as the world’s top buyer of the grain scrambles to make up for a slow start to its import program, traders and analysts said.”
Spring Planting Underway in Ukraine, as Soybean Prices Lower (Again)
Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported today that, “Most Ukrainian regions have started 2023 spring sowing, seeding a total of 293,000 hectares of various crops, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.”
Ukraine Grain Output Could Fall by a Fifth Compared to Last Year
Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin, Kateryna Choursina and Aine Quinn reported yesterday that, “Oleksandr Klepach’s fields in southern Ukraine would normally be teeming with shoots of wheat and rapeseed in spring. This March, they’re infested with weeds instead.”
ERS: “U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets,” Focus on Corn, Soybeans and Wheat
In a report yesterday from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), “U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets,” Samantha Padilla, Danielle J. Ufer, Stephen Morgan, and Noah Link stated that, “Export shares and exports-to-production ratios indicate the United States continues to be the top exporter of corn, tree nuts, and cotton, while other competitors have penetrated the global wheat and soybean markets.”
Ukraine Anticipates Lower 2023 Grain Harvest, Kansas Wheat Conditions Improve
Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported yesterday that, “Ukraine’s 2023 grain harvest is likely to fall to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million in 2022 as less acreage is sown due to the Russian invasion, a forecast by the Ukrainian agriculture ministry showed on Monday.”
Black Sea Grain Initiative Extended- “Uncertainty Surrounds The Duration”
Financial Times writer Ben Hall reported yesterday that, “A deal allowing Ukraine to export grain to world markets by ship despite Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has been extended, the UN and the Ukrainian and Turkish governments said on Saturday.”
Russia Still Calls for 60 Day Extension of Black Sea Grain Initiative, as Global Grain Stocks Seen Lower
Reuters writer Michelle Nichols reported yesterday that, “The United Nations backed Turkey and Ukraine on Thursday by calling for a 120-day rollover of an agreement allowing the safe export of grain from several Ukrainian Black Sea ports after Russia said it would only extend the pact for 60 days.”
China Makes Advance Purchases of Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Crop
Reuters writer Ana Mano reported yesterday that, “China is actively buying Brazil’s second corn, known as ‘safrinha,’ even as farmers grapple with planting delays in the world’s third biggest producer of the cereal.”
African Swine Fever Surges in China Potentially Driving Pork Prices Higher
Earlier this week, Reuters writer Dominique Patton reported that, “A surge in African swine fever infections in China is set to reduce hog output later this year, farm managers and analysts said this week, pushing up prices in the world’s top pork consumer as demand recovers.”
Uncertainty Over Black Sea Grain Initiative Extension Continues to Impact Market- Wheat Price Volatility “Remains High”
Reuters writers Nigel Hunt and Jonathan Saul reported yesterday that, “Russia has proposed that a U.N.-backed initiative that has enabled grains to be exported from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports should be renewed for just 60 days.”
Turkey Supports 120 Day Extension of Black Sea Grain Initiative, Wheat Prices Gain on Confusion Over Deal’s Extension
Bloomberg writers Aine Quinn and Megan Durisin reported on Tuesday that, “Wheat gained to the highest in a week amid confusion over the terms of renewing a key grain-export deal that allows Ukraine to ship crops from its Black Sea ports.”