Agricultural Economy

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the complete set of tables prepared for the upcoming USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028 report, which is scheduled to be released on March 13th.  Recall that in November, the Department released tables containing long-term supply, use, and price projections to 2028 for major U.S. crops.  The new tables included projections for farm income and global commodity trade, which are highlighted below.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) published a report that looked at trends in the development of drought-tolerant corn in the United States.  Today’s update looks at some key points from the ERS report.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) recently released its annual brochure exploring characteristics of America’s farms.  Today’s update highlights a few of the key findings from the ERS brochure.

CoBank recently released a report that explored a variety of issues that will impact the U.S. agricultural economy in 2019.  Meanwhile, recent news items have discussed issues associated with farm lending and farm income.  Today’s update briefly highlights core points from the CoBank report, and also looks at the recent news items discussing important elements of the agricultural economy.

Recent updates from Purdue University, the University of Illinois, and Iowa State University provide a snapshot of variables impacting the U.S. agricultural economy in 2019.  Today’s update looks briefly at key points from each of these three land grant university reports.

Nathan Kauffman and Ty Kreitman indicated in a recent update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“As Rates Tick Up, Growth in Operating Loans Boosts Farm Lending”) that, “Rounding out a year characterized by lower farm incomes, uncertainties about agricultural trade and the growth of lending volumes, interest rates on agricultural loans trended higher. The mounting combination of higher leverage and rising rates could put additional pressure on some farm operations.” Today’s update looks at the Kansas City Fed update in more detail with a particular focus on agricultural lending variables and farmland values.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its January 2019 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.

An update this week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as a short paper last month from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, provide insight into portions of the U.S. agricultural economy.   

A news release Wednesday from the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University and Iowa State University Extension and Outreach indicated that, “After a reprieve in 2017, commodity prices, interest rates, and trade disruptions drove Iowa farmland values down for the fourth time in five years. The average statewide value of an acre of farmland is now estimated to be $7,264. This represents a decrease of 0.8 percent, or $62 per acre, from the 2017 estimate.”

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its December 2018 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Friday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.1 billion (12.1 percent) from 2017 to $66.3 billion in 2018, after increasing $13.8 billion (22.5 percent) in 2017. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $8.5 billion (8.4 percent) to $93.4 billion.”

In addition to the melancholy agricultural outlook contained in recent Federal Reserve District agricultural surveys, an update last week from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis pointed to troubling data regarding Chapter 12 Bankruptcies in the District.  In addition, recent news articles have also discussed some variables that could impact the state of the U.S. agricultural economy as the 2018 harvest draws to an end.

Last week, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Minneapolis released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the third quarter of 2018. Today’s update highlights core findings from Thursday’s reports.

On Friday, the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released selected tables prepared for the Department’s upcoming Agricultural Baseline Projections report.  In part, the tables demonstrated that, “USDA estimated 82.5 million acres of soybean plantings for the spring of 2019, down from 89.1 million acres this year.”

On Monday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released a report titled, “An Exploration of Crop Markets: A Deeper Look Into the USDA Crop Baseline Projections,” which discussed the February 2018 USDA long-term crop projections in greater detail.  Today’s update highlights aspects of the report relating specifically to corn and soybeans.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its October 2018 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.

Nathan Kauffman and Ty Kreitman indicated in a recent update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Large-Scale Financing Drives Ag Lending Activity Higher”) that, “Alongside persistently low agricultural commodity prices, bankers throughout the country expected farm income to decline in the coming months. Despite the ongoing weaknesses in farm income and agricultural credit conditions, however, delinquency rates on farm loans remained low and the performance of agricultural banks remained sound.”

Suzanne Jenkins, a senior policy analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Nathan Kauffman, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, indicated in a recent update (“A Tale of Two Economies: Farmers Struggle despite Strong U.S. Economy”) at the Regional Economist that, “At a time when the overall U.S. economy continues to boom, the U.S. agricultural sector has continued to struggle amid falling farm income and deteriorating agricultural credit conditions.”

On Wednesday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released a report titled, “Tillage Intensity and Conservation Cropping in the United States,” which discussed regional and crop conservation tillage practices, as well as adoption of residue and cover practices.  Today’s update highlights a few aspects of the report.

On Tuesday, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its Baseline Update for U.S. Farm Income and the Farm Balance Sheet.  Today’s update includes brief highlights from the baseline update.