Cortney Cowley, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, indicated in an update last week (“As Winter Looms, Key Risks Keep Ag Outlook Cool”) that, “Following steep declines for three consecutive years, farm income was expected to stabilize in 2017 and beyond. In inflation-adjusted dollars, real net farm income was forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2016.”
Farm Policy News
USDA Trade Data Update: Focus on Soybeans and Grains
Today’s update provides a brief overview of updated USDA agricultural export data, with particular focus on soybeans and grains.
Farm Bill- Disaster Bill Seen as First Step, SNAP Concerns
An update posted on Tuesday at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC) blog indicated that, “Less than two weeks into the new year, and Congress already has an incredibly full plate. Both the House and Senate return to work this week (the Senate has officially been back since last week), and will need to immediately dig in their massive to-do lists, not least of which include finalizing fiscal year (FY) 2018 appropriations legislation, preparing for the FY 2019 budget, and tackling the soon-to-expire 2014 Farm Bill.”
President Trump Delivers Remarks to Farm Bureau Members
President Donald Trump addressed the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 99th Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee on Monday. The President touched on a variety of issues, including tax reform, regulations, rural broadband, the Farm Bill, crop insurance, and trade. This post highlights some of the key points that the President made in his remarks to the AFBF Members.
NAFTA- Recent Developments as President Trump Addresses AFBF Members on Monday
President Donald Trump will be in Nashville, Tennessee on Monday to speak at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 99th Annual Convention. The AFBF noted recently that, “After three consecutive years of decline in farm sector profits, President Trump will speak to Farm Bureau members during a period of prolonged economic challenge across farm country.” In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. exported $140.5 billion worth of agricultural products; and, the U.S. Department of Agriculture explained recently that, “Exports are responsible for 20 percent of U.S. farm income, also driving rural economic activity and supporting more than one million American jobs both on and off the farm.” AFBF members will be keenly interested in any remarks the President makes regarding trade policy, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Monday. With this in mind, today’s update focuses on recent NAFTA developments and agriculture.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Ag Credit Survey- Fourth Quarter 2017
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Agricultural Credit Survey for the fourth quarter of 2017. The Fed update indicated that, “Demand for agricultural loans overall continued to decrease for a ninth consecutive quarter. Loan renewals and extensions continued to increase, while the rate of loan repayment stabilized after falling last quarter.”
Farm Bill: Congressional Inaction on Disaster Bill; 2018 Agenda Items
At the end of 2017, Congress passed a temporary spending bill to prevent a government shutdown, but failed to complete work on an $81-billion disaster aid package. In addition to assistance for hurricanes and wildfires, the disaster package also included provisions dealing with the cotton and dairy programs. Today’s update provides a brief recap of some of the pre-holiday legislative activity, and highlights news articles discussing the legislative agenda in the new year.
2018 Purdue University Outlook: Cash Rents, Farmland Values, Corn and Soybean Prices
The Agricultural Economics Department at Purdue University recently released its annual outlook report that contained 12 specific articles looking at various aspects of the U.S. agricultural economy. This post highlights key points from the Purdue report relating to cash rents, farmland values, and the price outlook for corn and soybeans.
Dairy, Livestock, and Trade Issues Highlighted in Recent USDA Reports
In the last few days, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) have released three separate reports that contain current information relating to dairy sector analysis in China, U.S. livestock trade, and the the U.S.-Korea Trade Agreement (KORUS). This update briefly highlights core points from the three USDA reports.
Recent USDA-ERS Reports: Farm Structure (2017), and Evolving Distribution of Government Farm Payments (1991-2015)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) has recently released two separate reports that provide interesting perspective on the structure of U.S. agriculture. The first provides a detailed overview of current statistics relating to U.S. farms, while the second highlights the evolving distribution of Federal farm payments (1991-2015). This update underscores key findings from the two recent ERS reports.
Iowa Farmland Values, and the Corn Belt Economy- “At a Crossroads”
The 2017 Iowa State University Land Value Survey was released on Tuesday, and showed that farmland values climbed 2% this year. The survey was conducted in November by the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University and Iowa State University Extension and Outreach. Highlights of the survey are discussed in today’s update, along with recent news articles that explored the state of the Corn Belt agricultural economy in greater detail.
RFS: Rift Between “Corn State” Senators & “Oil-and-Gas State” Senators Persists
Last week, Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Tex.), along with several of his GOP colleagues, met with President Trump and other executive branch officials regarding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Today’s update looks briefly at some of the recent political maneuvering among Senators that led to the RFS meeting with Sen. Cruz, and examines some of the news articles that highlighted the results of that session.
USDA Trade Data; NAFTA Perspectives from Farm State Senators
Today’s update provides a brief overview of updated USDA agricultural export data, and also looks at recent news items regarding the NAFTA renegotiation, with particular focus on perspective from some farm state Senators.
Farm Bill- “Sooner Rather Than Later”
Today’s update looks at recent news items discussing the Farm Bill, with specific focus on the potential timing of when Congress may take up the legislation. Lawmaker perspectives on provisions in the bill, including CRP issues, payment limits, and SNAP, are also discussed.
USDA Updates U.S. Ag Export Forecast Amid NAFTA Worries
In fiscal year 2017, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $140.5 billion, representing the third-highest level on record. In its quarterly export forecast in August, USDA indicated that fiscal year 2018 agricultural exports were projected at $139.0 billion. However, in its latest quarterly forecast, released late last month, USDA increased the fiscal year 2018 export projection by $1.0 billion. Today’s update examines the latest export forecast in more detail, and looks briefly at recent NAFTA news items pertaining to agriculture, including a report from the Nebraska Farm Bureau.
EPA: Recent Perspectives on RFS and Agriculture
Recall that in December of 2016, agricultural policy observers expressed some measure of unease with President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt. As The Wall Street Journal stated at the time, “After campaigning as a strong supporter of the use of ethanol and other biofuels in the nation’s gasoline supply, President-elect Donald Trump has chosen a forceful adversary of those federal requirements to implement them.” Nearly one year later, today’s update looks briefly at recent EPA action on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and Administrator Pruitt’s visit to Iowa on Friday.
Federal Reserve: Observations on the Ag Economy- November ’17
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board released its November 2017 Beige Book update, a summary of commentary on current economic conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report included several observations pertaining to the U.S. agricultural economy.
2017 U.S. Farm Income Forecast- November Update
On Wednesday, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) released its November 2017 Farm Income Forecast. This follows the August revision of the initial net farm income forecast released by ERS in February. The USDA will release one more revision of the 2017 net farm income forecast in February 2018, and the 2017 official estimates will be released in August 2018. Today’s update provides a recap of highlights from the farm income forecast.
A Focus on Corn Belt Ag Exports; NAFTA Update
A FarmPolicyNews update last week pointed to recent USDA information pertaining to the aggregate value of U.S. agricultural exports, and how these trade flows have changed over the past two decades. A recent article from Iowa State University looked more narrowly at recent trade trends pertaining to four specific agricultural sectors: beef, pork, corn, and soybeans. Today’s summary looks at these issues in more detail, along with a brief update on the NAFTA renegotiations.
Farm Bill Update: Perspective from Chairman Conaway and Chairman Roberts
Last week, Don Wick, a farm broadcaster from the Red River Farm Network (Grand Forks, N.D.), sat down with several lawmakers on Capitol Hill to discuss current Farm Bill issues. Notably, he spoke with both the Chairman of the House Ag Committee, Mike Conaway, as well as the Senate Ag Committee Chairman Pat Roberts. Today’s update includes key elements from these lawmaker conversations with the Red River Farm Network.