The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri recently released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets. Today’s post summarizes highlights from the August FAPRI baseline report.
Farm Policy News
FSA Administrator Highlights Market Facilitation Program; Chinese Ag Imports Projected to Decrease
The Administrator of USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA), Richard Fordyce, was a guest on Friday’s “Adams on Agriculture” radio program with Mike Adams, where he discussed details of the new Market Facilitation Program. Meanwhile, USDA released its quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade last week, which noted that agricultural exports to China are projected to decrease.
Farm Income: USDA Forecast for 2018 and First Estimates for 2017
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated on Thursday that, “Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decrease $9.8 billion (13.0 percent) from 2017 to $65.7 billion in 2018, after increasing $13.9 billion (22.5 percent) in 2017. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease $12.4 billion (12.0 percent) to $91.5 billion.”
USDA Outlines Trade Assistance; While President Trump Touts U.S., Mexico Trade Agreement
On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided additional details on its trade assistance package for farmers. Meanwhile, President Trump indicated that the U.S. and Mexico had reached an agreement on trade, which he described as a replacement of NAFTA, in what some observers saw as an effort to pressure Canada in ongoing trade negotiations.
U.S., China Trade Conflict Could Escalate as Talks Floundered; While USDA Sets to Release Trade Aid Details
Recent news reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China last week yielded little progress towards resolution. Some experts indicated that the ongoing trade conflict between the two countries could worsen. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture could release details on its trade aid package as early as Monday.
European Drought Impacting Production, Potential Opportunities for U.S. Farmers
Reuters writer Gus Trompiz reported on Wednesday that, “European farmers are counting the cost of a summer heatwave that has shrunk cereal harvests and shriveled pastures, leaving some farms struggling to survive and shutting the EU out of lucrative export markets.”
Farmers Tested by Tariffs as the U.S. and China Prepare For Trade Talks
Today’s update explores recent news articles that discuss the impacts of the U.S., China trade dispute, with a focus on how farmers are reacting to ongoing tariffs. In addition, midlevel talks between the U.S. and China have been scheduled as the two countries began to prepare for their first major negotiation in more than two months.
Farm Bill Perspective: SNAP and Conservation
As the work of the Farm Bill conference committee progresses, two issues, SNAP and conservation, have been singled out as key to the committee’s success. Today’s update looks briefly at recent news items that contain lawmaker perspective on these two issues.
Farmers Await Details on USDA Trade Assistance
U.S. farmers are anxious for details on the trade assistance package the administration announced in July. Press reports indicate that program guidelines could be issued by August 24th. Meanwhile, business news articles and USDA data continue to shed light on agricultural export variables as the ongoing trade dispute with China continues.
Drought Takes Toll on EU and Australian Wheat Production
In its August Grain: World Markets and Trade report on Friday, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “Combined wheat production in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine is forecast down 12 percent from last year to the lowest level in 5 years. The EU wheat crop is down 9 percent from last year on hot, dry weather in the northern Member States, while production in Russia and Ukraine is down from recent bumper crops on a return to normal yields.”
Abundant Supply, Lower Prices and Trade Issues- Focus on Soybeans
The U.S. Department of Agriculture painted a clearer picture of soybean and corn production prospects for this year’s harvest on Friday. In addition, recent USDA trade data, along with business news articles, have provided further perspective on U.S. soybean exports, particularly as it relates to China. Today’s update explores a few of these issues in more detail.
Federal Reserve Ag Credit Surveys- 2018 Second Quarter Farm Economy Conditions in the Midwest
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, St. Louis and Kansas City released updates regarding farm income, farmland values and agricultural credit conditions from the second quarter of 2018. Recall that the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas issued a similar update last month. Today’s update highlights core findings from Thursday’s reports.
Wheat: Heat Wave Impacting Outlook, Prices
Last week, Financial Times writer Emiko Terazono reported that, “The wheat market is feeling the heat, with key global producers sweating over a drought that has curbed output. After several years of bumper harvests, the wheat market is poised to tighten sharply as Russia, Australia and EU countries contend with scorching temperatures.”
U.S., China Trade Spat Persists
Keith Bradsher and Cao Li reported in Saturday’s New York Times that, “China threatened on Friday to tax an additional $60 billion a year worth of imports from the United States if the Trump administration imposes its own new levies on Chinese goods. The threat comes just two days after President Trump ordered his administration to consider increasing the rate of tariffs it has already proposed on $200 billion a year of Chinese goods — everything from chemicals to handbags — to 25 percent from 10 percent.”
Although news reports indicate that the new Chinese duties “is leaving the farm largely unscathed,” ongoing concerns about the trade war persist, particularly as it relates to U.S. soybean exports.
USDA-NASS Updates Provide Snapshot of Farm Economy Variables
On Thursday, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released three updates that provide current insight into the state of the U.S. agricultural economy. The releases focused on land values, cash rents, and production expenditures.
Secretary Perdue Discusses Trade Aid, while Trade Talks with China Show Little Progress
Reuters writer Hugh Bronstein reported on Saturday that, “U.S. farmers could receive cash payments from a planned $12 billion aid package as soon as late September, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told Reuters on Saturday, warning that the program will not make tariff-hit farmers whole.”
Agricultural Trade: Soybean Issues
Agricultural trade issues continue to garner a substantial amount of media attention. The Commerce Department noted on Friday that surging U.S. soybean exports, spurred by the anticipation of Chinese tariffs, contributed to strong second quarter GDP growth. Meanwhile, President Trump touted an agreement with the EU to purchase more U.S. soybeans, although a subsequent report pointed out that the accord fell short of addressing broader agricultural trade disputes. Nonetheless, on Sunday’s “Face the Nation” television program, Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s economic advisor, indicated that broad discussions on agriculture will be part of the bilateral talks wth the EU.
USDA Assists Farmers Harmed by Tariffs
A news release from USDA on Tuesday stated that, “U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today announced that the [USDA] will take several actions to assist farmers in response to trade damage from unjustified retaliation. President Trump directed Secretary Perdue to craft a short-term relief strategy to protect agricultural producers while the Administration works on free, fair, and reciprocal trade deals to open more markets in the long run to help American farmers compete globally. Specifically, USDA will authorize up to $12 billion in programs, which is in line with the estimated $11 billion impact of the unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods. These programs will assist agricultural producers to meet the costs of disrupted markets.”
Kansas City Fed Examines Second Quarter Farm Lending
An update on Friday from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (“Large Loans for Livestock Drive Uptick in Farm Lending,” by Cortney Cowley and Ty Kreitman) stated that, “Farm lending activity increased slightly in the second quarter, according to the National Survey of Terms of Lending to Farmers. The total volume of non-real estate farm loans was about 2 percent higher than the same period last year.”
Tariffs and Commodity Prices: Impacts and Reactions
Several recent news articles have discussed tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports and the impacts these policies are having on global commodity markets. As the effects of trade policies ripple through the agricultural sector, a separate set of news items have highlighted how politicians and farmers are reacting to the impacts. Today’s update provides an overview of these news stories.