Trade

As policy observers anticipate a meeting later this month between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires, recent news items continue to highlight the adverse impacts ongoing trade disputes are having on some sectors of the U.S. agricultural economy.  The trade war is also providing economic incentives for robust Chinese investment in its domestic agricultural production.

Reuters writers P.J. Huffstutter and Karl Plume reported Wednesday that, “Clouds crowded the Illinois sky as Nick Harre walked away from his combine at the peak of harvest to join four fellow farmers in greeting some unlikely visitors.

Updated monthly data last week from the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided additional insight into how the ongoing U.S. trade dispute with China is impacting the soybean market. Today’s update looks briefly at portions of the USDA data, as well as recent news articles that have discussed U.S. agricultural export variables, and ongoing trade issues with China.

In its latest quarterly forecast for U.S. agricultural trade, USDA indicated that, “For fiscal 2018, the [agricultural export] forecast of $144.0 billion is an increase of $1.5 billion from the previous forecast in May, largely due to higher corn, cotton, and soybean meal exports.”

Recent news articles demonstrate that tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities are having an impact not only on the quantity of U.S. goods exported to China, but also the flow of some agricultural products within the U.S., and 2019 acreage allocation decisions by farmers.  Meanwhile, a recent Wall Street Journal article reported that, “President Trump said the U.S. is getting much closer to a trade deal with China, a sign of optimism ahead of the Group of 20 leaders summit in Argentina later this month.”

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China persist, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. commodities continue to roil markets.  Despite a variety of impeding economic variables, a news article notes that the current ag economy is sturdier than when the 1980s farm crisis unfolded.  Meanwhile, export competitors move forward with a Trans Pacific Partnership agreement, while the benefits of the new USMCA may be overshadowed by ongoing tariff disputes.

Recent news items continue to discuss the impacts of trade tariffs on agricultural commodities, including soybeans, dairy products, and pork.  Meanwhile, separate articles have focused on executive branch trade policy perspective with respect to China, as well as as the administration’s view on potential trade mitigation payments for 2019.

Recent news articles continue to highlight the impact that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is having on the agricultural economy.  Today’s update looks at news items that discuss trade repercussions for pork and soybean farmers.

After recently signing a new KORUS (United States-Republic of Korea) Trade Agreement, and reaching an agreement on a revised North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office signaled this week that the U.S. will start trade talks with Japan, the EU and the U.K. soon.

News reports indicate that President Trump and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping plan to meet in November, in what could be an opportunity for the two leaders to discuss trade issues.  Meanwhile, a recent USDA report, and current news articles, continue to highlight how the ongoing Chinese trade tariffs are impacting the international trade flow of soybeans.

Today’s update looks briefly at recent reports that discuss variables associated with U.S. soybean exports.  In addition, news items that highlight concerns about crop storage issues, and the trade policy outlook, are also noted.

Wall Street Journal writers Jacob M. Schlesinger, Kim Mackrael and Vivian Salama reported Monday that, “The U.S. and Canada reached a dramatic, last-minute deal late Sunday night on revising the North American Free Trade Agreement, lifting a cloud of uncertainty over the quarter-century-old continental commercial bloc.”

Recent news articles have discussed USDA’s trade aid package, as well as the potential impacts of ongoing trade tariffs on U.S. farm goods.  Today’s update provides an overview of several of these articles.

Business news articles continue to highlight how Chinese soybean tariffs are impacting the international sale and purchase of soybeans.  Today’s update looks briefly at a few of these recent news items.

President Trump indicated this week that the U.S. is planning to increase tariffs on Chinese imports, while China responded with proposed tariffs of its own on more U.S. exports.  As trade tensions between the two countries increase, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its latest soybean estimates earlier this month, which provided additional insight into the ongoing agricultural impacts of the trade war.

On Thursday, the Senate Ag Committee held a hearing titled, “Perspectives on U.S. Agricultural Trade,” where lawmakers engaged in a discussion with Gregg Doud, the Chief Agricultural Negotiator with the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and Ted McKinney, USDA’s Under Secretary For Trade And Foreign Agricultural Affairs.  USDA Chief Economist Dr. Robert Johansson also provided technical background at the hearing.

A radio update from USDA on Thursday indicated that U.S. agriculture exports set a record in July.  “It’s the best July that the U.S. has seen as far as agricultural exports go, the value total,” said Bryce Cooke, an economist with USDA’s Economic Research Service.  The total value of U.S. agricultural exports in July totaled just over $11 billion.

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided additional details on its trade assistance package for farmers.  Meanwhile, President Trump indicated that the U.S. and Mexico had reached an agreement on trade, which he described as a replacement of NAFTA, in what some observers saw as an effort to pressure Canada in ongoing trade negotiations.

Recent news reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China last week yielded little progress towards resolution.  Some experts indicated that the ongoing trade conflict between the two countries could worsen.  Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture could release details on its trade aid package as early as Monday.