Recent CARD Paper Discusses China’s Hog Inventory, with Implications for Corn Demand

Writing recently in the CARD (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development) Agricultural Policy Review, from Iowa State University (“Is China’s Hog Rebuilding Complete? Reconciling Inventory and Price Data“), Dermot Hayes, Xi He, and Wendong Zhang stated that, “The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak that started in August 2018 wiped out 40% of China’s sow inventory.

Pork Export Variables and China

Earlier this month, in its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated that, “Driven by higher estimates for pork, the China total meat import forecasts for both 2020 and 2021 are revised 4 and 1 percent higher, respectively. While pork import growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2020, it nevertheless exceeded expectations and results in a more bullish outlook for 2021.”

Chinese Demand Undergirds Robust Soybean, Corn Prices

Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton reported last week that, “China’s soybean imports jumped 13% to an annual record in 2020, customs data showed on Thursday, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country’s rapidly recovering pig sector.”

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