Trade

Late last week, Reuters writers Hallie Gu, Maximilian Heath, and Naveen Thukral reported that, “Chinese feed producers, pig farmers and traders are reshaping the global grain market as they scour the world for supplies amid a domestic shortfall that sent local corn prices to record highs and is expected to fuel global food inflation in 2021.”

A report earlier this month from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “China’s Corn Imports Estimated to Hit 22 Million Metric Tons,” stated that, “The forecast for China’s corn imports for MY 2020/2021 is increased from 7 MMT to 22 MMT. The jump is attributed to depleted stocks to meet current demand. Continually rising domestic corn prices will also drive demand for additional imports in MY 20/21.”

Late last week, Bloomberg News reported that, “China is flying in record numbers of pigs to improve genetics and boost productivity while rapidly rebuilding the nation’s hog population after it was decimated by African swine fever.”

Bloomberg News reported last week that, “China’s corn imports could more than double to 17 million tons in 2020-2021 from a year earlier on prospects for a smaller domestic harvest and a recovery in demand for hog feed, according to the head of the logistics information department at COFCO Trading Co.”

A news release from USDA on Friday stated that, “The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and [USDA] today issued a report highlighting the progress made to date in implementing the agricultural provisions in the U.S.-China Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement, which is delivering historic results for American agriculture.”

Mark Ash and Dana Golden explained in this month’s Oil Crops Outlook, from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), that, “Despite an unchanged yield, USDA pegs the 2020/21 U.S. soybean crop down by 45 million bushels this month to 4.268 billion as the sown acreage is revised down by 731,000 acres to 83.1 million.”

Reports this month from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) have provided updated information on market variables impacting soybeans, meat, and corn.  Today’s update highlights some of the key findings from these FAS publications.

Reuters News reported this week that, “One more case of African swine fever (ASF) has been confirmed in a wild boar in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, Germany’s federal agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.”

A recent report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “China: Evolving Demand in the World’s Largest Agricultural Import Market,” stated that, “As part of the Phase One Agreement, China has committed to purchase $12.5 billion more agricultural and related products from the United States over 2017 levels.”

Bloomberg writer Michael Hirtzer reported late last week that, “American hog producers have been cutting back on the herd for several months, but there are signs they haven’t been moving fast enough to keep the market under control.”

Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton reported late last week that, “China’s August imports of soybeans from Brazil rose 22% from a year ago, customs data showed on Friday, as buyers increased their purchases to take advantage of higher margins earlier this year.”

Bloomberg News reported last week that, “China’s ban on German pork is set to cement the U.S. as the top overseas supplier of the nation’s staple meat.”

Reuters writers Hallie Gu and Gavin Maguire reported on Wednesday that, “China’s corn crop is expected to fall by up to 10 million tonnes, or nearly 4%, from the latest government estimates after heavy wind and rains toppled crops in major production areas in the northeastern cornbelt, analysts said.”

Late last week, Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin, Brian Parkin, and Isis Almeida reported that, “A deadly pig disease has materialized in Germany for the first time, threatening to hammer exports from Europe’s biggest hog-producing nation.”

Bloomberg News reported earlier this week that, “The corn harvest in [China] the world’s top producer after the U.S. is being closely watched as demand for hog and poultry feed expands and state reserves dwindle, pushing local prices to the highest in five years. Purchases from the U.S. and Ukraine already exceed 10 million tons, and they could hit 20 million tons if U.S. prices stay competitive, said Feng Lichen, chief analyst with portal www.yumi.com.cn. That would make the country the world’s largest importer.”

Reuters writer Karl Plume reported last week that, “Chinese state-owned firms bought at least eight bulk shipments of U.S. soybeans on Wednesday, or at least 480,000 tonnes, for shipment in December and January, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said.”

Reuters writer Karl Plume reported on Thursday that, “China made its largest weekly U.S. beef purchases on record last week, followed by its biggest U.S. corn deals in almost a month this week, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Thursday.”

On Wednesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS).  Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Bart Kenner and Hui Jiang.

Wall Street Journal writers Bob Davis and Lingling Wei reported this week that, “Senior U.S. and Chinese officials said they were committed to carrying out the phase-one trade accord between the two nations, the two governments said, after the two sides discussed the pact Monday evening U.S. time.”

Bloomberg News reported this week that, “President Donald Trump said he called off last weekend’s trade talks with China, raising questions about the future of a deal that is now the most stable point in an increasingly tense relationship.”