Trade

Wall Street Journal writer William Mauldin reported on Monday that, “President Donald Trump on Monday sought to use his threat to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as leverage to extract concessions from North American trading partners, while his party’s congressional leaders worked to derail a proposal that they said could spark a trade war.”

A FarmPolicyNews update last month discussed executive branch implementation of U.S. import tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, as well as the possibility of future implementation of import barriers on steel and aluminum.  That update also included a look at the potential of retaliatory measures, particularly by China, that could have a negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports and farm income.  On Thursday, President Trump signaled that he plans to levy the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports soon.  Today’s update looks at recent news items that highlight the negative impact trade retaliation measures could have on U.S. agriculture if the President follows through on his import tariff promise.

Today’s update looks at recent USDA trade highlights from calendar year 2017, and then turns to USDA’s export projections for corn and soybeans in the 2018-19 marketing year.  

Following the implementation of U.S. import tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, more recent news regarding potential executive branch trade barriers imposed on steel and aluminum imports have caused concern among some American agricultural groups.  China is a leading producer of solar panels and steel, and is also a key export destination for U.S. agricultural exports.  As U.S. farm income potentially languishes for another year, export markets have become increasingly important to the value of U.S. crop production.  Some observers have cautioned that agricultural products could be targeted by China in retaliation for additional U.S. trade restrictions.

Last week, a Bloomberg news article stated that, “Commodities would be particularly exposed if U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on foreign solar panels and washing machines sparks a tit-for-tat trade war with nations around the world…If China wanted to hit back, soybeans could be a weapon.”

Financial Times writer Shawn Donnan reported on Monday that, “Talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement are moving too slowly, Donald Trump’s trade tsar complained on Monday as he rejected a Canadian proposal to rethink the rules governing the auto trade on the continent.”

Jacob M. Schlesinger reported on Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal Online that, “Eleven Pacific Rim nations agreed to forge a new trade bloc [TPP] that excludes the U.S. on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump signed an order to block certain cheap Asian imports [Chinese makers of solar panels and South Korean producers of washing machines], illustrating the battle lines of a new global trade climate.”

Today’s update provides a brief overview of updated USDA agricultural export data, with particular focus on soybeans and grains.

President Donald Trump addressed the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 99th Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee on Monday.  The President touched on a variety of issues, including tax reform, regulations, rural broadband, the Farm Bill, crop insurance, and trade. This post highlights some of the key points that the President made in his remarks to the AFBF Members.

President Donald Trump will be in Nashville, Tennessee on Monday to speak at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 99th Annual Convention.  The AFBF noted recently that, “After three consecutive years of decline in farm sector profits, President Trump will speak to Farm Bureau members during a period of prolonged economic challenge across farm country.”  In fiscal year 2017, the U.S. exported $140.5 billion worth of agricultural products; and, the U.S. Department of Agriculture explained recently that, “Exports are responsible for 20 percent of U.S. farm income, also driving rural economic activity and supporting more than one million American jobs both on and off the farm.” AFBF members will be keenly interested in any remarks the President makes regarding trade policy, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on Monday.  With this in mind, today’s update focuses on recent NAFTA developments and agriculture.

Today’s update provides a brief overview of updated USDA agricultural export data, and also looks at recent news items regarding the NAFTA renegotiation, with particular focus on perspective from some farm state Senators.

In fiscal year 2017, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $140.5 billion, representing the third-highest level on record.  In its quarterly export forecast in August, USDA indicated that fiscal year 2018 agricultural exports were projected at $139.0 billion.  However, in its latest quarterly forecast, released late last month, USDA increased the fiscal year 2018 export projection by $1.0 billion.  Today’s update examines the latest export forecast in more detail, and looks briefly at recent NAFTA news items pertaining to agriculture, including a report from the Nebraska Farm Bureau.

A FarmPolicyNews update last week pointed to recent USDA information pertaining to the aggregate value of U.S. agricultural exports, and how these trade flows have changed over the past two decades.  A recent article from Iowa State University looked more narrowly at recent trade trends pertaining to four specific agricultural sectors: beef, pork, corn, and soybeans.  Today’s summary looks at these issues in more detail, along with a brief update on the NAFTA renegotiations.

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2017 increased over $10 billion to the third-highest level on record.  Although the U.S. remains the second largest exporter of agricultural goods in the world, the share of U.S. agricultural exports has fallen from 23 percent of global value in 1995 to 12.5 percent in 2013.  Nonetheless, U.S. agricultural exports to NAFTA countries and to China have increased since 1995, highlighting the importance of these regions to U.S. agricultural trade.  Today’s update looks at these issues in more detail, along with a brief update on the NAFTA renegotiations.

Today’s update takes a closer look at recent USDA agricultural trade export data for fiscal year 2017, and then proceeds to examine recent news items that provide perspective on NAFTA trade issues from lawmakers, the Secretary of Agriculture, farmers, and Mexico.

Last week, USDA updated portions of its monthly agricultural trade data.  Despite some positive indications, news reports demonstrate that concerns over the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) persist in both Mexico and the U.S. agricultural sector.